How many times did he repeat it? “We will maintain the objective” reduce the public deficit to less than 3% of gross domestic product (GDP) by 2027, Bruno Le Maire said in March, despite an initial slip in public accounts. it is necessary “redouble your determination” To achieve this goal, it continued in April, following a warning from the very dubious rating agencies. “My goal remains to get back below the 3% deficit by 2027,” held on July 31.
However, the Treasury note delivered to parliamentarians on September 2 by the resigned Minister of the Economy and Finance says something completely different. Public finances remain adrift and, if nothing is done, France’s deficit, instead of being reduced as planned, will increase significantly. It would represent 5.6% of GDP in 2024, then 6.2% in 2025 and 6.7% in 2026, to stabilise at 6.5% in 2027. Far, very far from the commitment made by Emmanuel Macron and his ministers. The intermediate target of 4.1% planned for 2025 “it seems very difficult to get there”, and it seems necessary to establish a new one “acceptable date for the deficit to return to below 3% of GDP”, writes the director of the Treasury, Bertrand Dumont, in his note consulted by The world.
“We had our doubts, but now it is clear: France will not be able to keep its promises. comments bitterly Jean-François Husson, general rapporteur (Les Républicains, LR) of the Senate finance committee. This slippage brings us to the edge of the precipice. I am even more angry because we requested this note on July 18. Bruno Le Maire kept it for a month and a half before handing it over to us on Monday afternoon. Nobody cares about us! »
At the beginning of the year, the executive presented the decrease in the deficit in 2024 as an unforeseeable accident. This time, Bercy reduces the gap between political objectives and these new estimates to three key elements. On the one hand, a deterioration in the economic situation, especially in 2025, which could reduce tax revenues. On the other hand, an uncontrolled increase in local authority spending. Finally, and above all, the absence of strong corrective measures: in the spring, Emmanuel Macron did not want a corrective budget and, since the dissolution, the government, on borrowed time, has frozen some credits on paper, but without anything definitive. On its own, the lack of materialization of the projects launched by Bercy to save or increase certain taxes should increase the public deficit by 56.8 billion euros in 2025, according to the Treasury.
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