Spain activates weather warnings again: low pressure accompanied by cold air arrive from Europe this Tuesday afternoon, in what will be the first winter storm this will affect all of Spain. During the night from Tuesday to Wednesday, these air masses will be isolated in the form of DANA (Isolated depression at high levels) which will pass to an isolated cold storm (BFA) in the following days. They are expected heavy rain in the Balearic Islands and the Mediterranean, and snow from 800 meters north according to the State Meteorological Agency (Aemet).
The DANA will be taken down polar circulation and “it will quickly cross the peninsula on Wednesday until emerging in the Atlantic and will be located to the west-southwest of Portugal”, they explain. ElTiempo.es. From Thursday, the phenomenon will be considered a storm, and will leave heavy rain in the western half and the south of the country. “Generally speaking, the B.F.A. It’s more predictable. As there is a low pressure system on the surface with defined fronts, it is easier to delimit areas favorable to intense rains,” explains the meteorologist. Mar Gomez to the SPANISH.
“In the latest updates we see that the total episode values will be between 100 and 150 mm, which represents considerable quantities” continues the specialist. The accumulated quantities will not be close to those of the episode of the 29th, she specifies, because these “generous” rains will be will distribute throughout the week. Tuesday there will be orange notice In the archipelago Balearic Islandsand “between Wednesday and Thursday they become more important in the Mediterranean peninsula”. Thus, “quantities greater than 100 mm until Friday” are expected in the Valencia points, and equally “significant” volumes in Malaga, Granada, Central System and Huelva.
Aemet forecasts stormy showers for this Tuesday which could be very heavy on the Mediterranean coasts of the Levant and in the Balearic archipelago, with up to 30 or 40 liters per square meter (l/m2) in just one hour. “This could lead to flooding in low-lying areas,” they warn. It will even snow “heavily” in the Pyrenees, the Cantabrian Mountains and the north of the Iberian system at levels which will drop at the last minute to 800 meters. It will also snow in the central system and in the south of the Iberian system, a day when temperatures will drop, with northerly winds and frost in mountain areas.
Wednesday, the The atmosphere will be “cold, almost wintery” even in southern Spain, Aemet warns. Dawn will break with frost in the mountainous areas and heaths of the center and east of the peninsula. Thermal values at central times will be approximately between 10 and 15ºC indoorsand they will not exceed 20ºC in practically all of Spain. The drop in maximum temperatures will reach up to 8ºC in places like Cáceres, which will go from 17ºC last weekend to drop to 9ºC. Rain will persist in the Balearic Islands, the Levant region and southern Andalusia.
Regarding the alert level, “we will have to be careful,” warns Gómez. “The orange signs will be guaranteed but the red ones will depend on the evolution of the situation.” The red level tends to be set at thresholds “above 120-130 mm in 12 hours“, but in the Balearic Islands, certain Canary Islands, certain regions of Catalonia, Murcia or the Valencian Community They occur from 180 mm. In its latest special notice, Aemet does not exclude that this amount is reached specifically in the Balearic archipelago, in Malaga and Granada.
It is likely that a dana or cold storm will end up isolating itself to the south of the peninsula from Wednesday 13th, remaining in our environment until Saturday 16th. Forecast evolution of temperature and geopotential altitude at 5,500 m altitude. pic.twitter.com/HhkK9FUnG3
— AEMET_C. Valencian (@AEMET_CValencia) November 10, 2024
“As expected, it will rain“Gómez warns of precipitation that could affect areas already flooded after DANA on October 29. “This may affect the Soil drainage, purification and cleaning works“. Based on the latest forecasts, he warns, it is possible that some areas will be flooded again, “although we hope it will not be as much as a few weeks ago.”
Snowfall in the north and east of the peninsula will continue to fall above 800 meters and will be “abundant” in the Cantabrian Sierra and the Pyrenees. They can be accumulated more than ten centimeters of snow during the day. “The wind will also blow from the north with intensity over a good part of the territory, adding unpleasant character per day”, underlines Aemet. The Canary Islands, for their part, will leave behind the abnormal maximum temperatures for the time and will normalize.
How long will the storm last?
Even with uncertainty, Aemet says, temperatures on the peninsula will rise and “the environment will become something warmer, more autumnal“. However, rains could still occur in western Andalusia, the strip of the Mediterranean between the Ebro delta and Cape Nao, the center of the peninsula and the southern slopes of the central system. “In these areas, they could accumulate between Thursday and Saturday. about 60-80mm, locally more than 120 mm. “It is not excluded that heavy and persistent rains will also occur in Murcia and the southern plateau.”
Finally, the meteorological service considers it “probable” that from Saturday 16 the precipitation “will begin to lose intensity in the Mediterranean area and move towards the Atlantic slope and the Empordà”. However, in the last days of the week, Spain could be exposed “to the passage of Atlantic storms with possible rain, particularly in the west of the peninsula.
This could lead to a prolongation of the heavy rain episode, as happened with DANA at the beginning of the month, much longer than expected. The meteorologist warns that this is an unpredictable factor. “Science tells us that there is more frequency of DANA in Europebut regarding its durability, there are no specific studies. What we do know is that a warmer Mediterranean can fuel storms and make them worse,” he concludes.
