70% think Sánchez knew about Ábalos’ activities and lied to Congress about Delcy: 53% call for elections

This is reflected in the latest SocioMética survey for EL ESPAÑOL, carried out last week, one of the darkest for the government, with various scandals breaking out in the president’s immediate entourage. This is why 53.4% ​​of Spaniards, the majority, already think that Sánchez should dissolve the Cortes and call early general elections.

Sánchez dismissed Ábalos as Minister of Transport in July 2021, forcing him to leave the secretariat of the PSOE organization a few days later. The dismissal was unexpected and, already at that time, the question was whether the president knew that his until then right hand He was involved in some sort of scandal.

However, last Monday, the organic spokesperson of the PSOE, Esther Penadefended that Sánchez had fired Ábalos to give new impetus to the Executive and that his alleged criminal activities had not been suspected until the outbreak of the Koldo affairat the end of last February.

In this legal case, a judge of the National Court is investigating a plot involving civil servants and businessmen who allegedly devoted themselves to collect illegal commissions through several contracts, awarded, at the start of the Covid-19 pandemic, by the central government and by the executives of the Canary Islands and the Balearic Islands. One of the people investigated is Koldo Garciaformer advisor to the former head of Transport.

According to a report from the Central Operational Unit (UCO) of the Civil Guard, the alleged author of the plot, Victor de Aldamapaid Koldo to maintain his influence at the Ministry of Transport. The network allegedly used alleged corrupt practices to influence decision-making bodies “by using Koldo-Ábalos pair“.

Now, according to the SocioMétrica survey, only 23.3% of Spaniards buy the Ferraz version. By party, those who give him credibility are the voters of the left-wing parties and the nationalists who supported the nomination, while the voters of the right-wing parties believe that Sánchez was aware of Ábalos’ activities.

But only half of socialist voters (50.4%) believe that Sánchez was unaware of the activities of his former leader. number two to the PSOE. And a particularly striking fact: Podemos or Sumar voters believe Ferraz’s version more than the socialists themselves.

PSOE voters are those who most choose to answer that they do not know or do not answer. 10.7% answer this question.

On February 12, 2020, during the plenary session of the Congress of Deputies, Sánchez responded to a question from the opposition by saying that José Luis Ábalos had gone to Barajas, in January of the same year, to prevent the vice- Venezuelan President, Delcy Rodríguez, to set foot on Spanish soil in order to “avoid a diplomatic crisis“. The Chavista leader was banned from flying over or accessing EU territory.

This version does not correspond today to the conclusions of the Civil Guard, which indicate that the President of the Government gave the green light, with a brief WhatsApp message, to the arrival of Delcy Rodríguez, of which he became aware thanks to a WhatsApp of Abalos. “He comes privately on Monday and wants to see me discreetly,” the former minister explained to him.

70.4% of Spaniards think that Sánchez ‘deliberately misled Parliament’ in this February statement, just a few weeks after number two of the Nicolas Maduro regime has landed in Madrid.

Only 25.4% of those questioned believe that he told the truth and, here again, socialist voters are those who have the most doubts (8.4% do not know or do not answer). Although support for the President of the Government is majority among the left forces, in this case, Sumar’s voters are more numerous (35.6%) to believe that he deceived the Congress.

Concerning the consequences and responsibilities of everything that became known about Ábalos after the UCO revelations, 90.8% of Spaniards consider that there are reasons for the Supreme Court to open proceedings against him for alleged corruption . It must be the judge of the National Court Ismael Moreno who makes the request, since the former minister is certified and, therefore, only the High Court can investigate him.

Here, opinion in favor of a prosecution against him crosses all parties, from left to right. Even 78.5% of socialist voters believe this should be soexceeding the opinion of the voters of Sumar (74.1%) and Podemos (57%), but not that of the nationalist parties which support the government (89%).

The truth is that the accusation of Ábalos gets closer every day, after the Anti-corruption prosecution has already asked Judge Moreno.

Faced with this situation, 67.6% of Spaniards believe that Pedro Sánchez should take political responsibility for having chosen Ábalos as minister in his cabinet and for not having adequately followed his behavior. Here, however, opinion is again divided according to the ideology of the voters.

Voters from left-wing parties and nationalists believe that Sánchez should not take responsibility. The most convinced are paradoxically the supporters of Podemos (77.9%), well above the voters of the parties which form the coalition. At the PSOE, 58.5% are against taking responsibility. In Sumar, 58.7%.

This recent SocioMétrica survey reveals that, even if socialist voters mainly support their party, the degree of distrust reaches very high levels. Support for Sánchez is not blind and, in most cases, the leadership finds Sumar or Podemos voters more convinced.

If one socialist voter in three (32%) believes that the president of the government must take political responsibility for having had Ábalos in his cabinet, one in four (24.1%) believes that the PSOE tried to cover up the case alleged corruption by filing a complaint against the former minister in an attempt to expel him.

Voters from Podemos (18.5%), Sumar (12.7%) and nationalist parties (20.6%) are less likely to believe that this is a strategy aimed at covering its own backs on the part of the PSOE. This could indicate that the PSOE may have difficulty mobilizing its potential voters in general elections.

It is nevertheless striking to note that one in three Spaniards, or 33.2%, consider that Pedro Sánchez is a victim of a hunt for judges and the media to sink it. But once again, Podemos and Sumar believe in it more than the PSOE.

With these figures, we understand that only 30.8% of Spaniards consider that Sánchez should stay at Moncloa. The others, however, prefer to avoid inaction and the majority (53.4%) are committed to dissolving the chambers and calling elections. There are also 15.1% who prefer that Sánchez submit to a vote of confidence.

Support for keeping things as they are is concentrated in left-wing and nationalist parties, although with nuances. The most convinced are those of Sumar (78.5%), probably because their party is falling in the polls, which would make it difficult to reconstitute a coalition government in the event of early elections.

The second most convinced are the nationalists (75.8%), because the current executive depends on their maintenance: this allows them to obtain numerous advantages in exchange for their votes.

And the PP?

What doesn’t add as many supporters is that Alberto Núñez Feijóo presents a motion of censure to expel Sánchez de la Moncloa. 55.9% of Spaniards consider this not a good idea. But depending on the voter’s profile, the reason for rejecting the motion is different.

Left-wing voters prefer that there be no motion of no confidence that would put Sánchez in danger. Neither do the nationalists, who are comfortable with the current government, from whom they continue to extract concessions. 80.3% are against the motion of censure, the highest figure.

But the right is divided. PP voters overwhelmingly reject the motion, as they consider it a bad strategy because they do not have the necessary support in Congress. Only Vox voters are in favor of the motion of censure. But barely: 53.3% are in favor.

The SocioMética survey for EL ESPAÑOL also questions one of the major political controversies of the last two weeks: the legal reform that will allow more than 50 convicted ETA members to serve fewer years of sentence than expected , by standardizing the sentences they served abroad.

64.6% of Spaniards are against this legal reform, which will come into force within 20 days. Rejection is in the majority among supporters of the PP (89.6%) and Vox (99%). Both parties voted in Congress in favor of this reform, because they did not know the meaning of the amendment introduced by Sumar.

The PP refused to act against the deputies responsible for supervising this parliamentary procedure, but 84.7% of voters in Feijóo’s party consider that the party leadership should sanction those responsible for this error.

Technical sheet

The study was carried out by the company SocioMétrica between October 16 and 18, 2024 through 2,240 random interviews extracted from its own panel of n=10,000 individuals representative of all Spanish socio-demographic segments.

The final results were finely adjusted using a weighting variable that takes into account gender, age, province and electoral memory during the last three elections.

Maximum error: 3% (SocioMétrica’s average deviation in voting in gen23 was 1.1% and in eu24 was 0.8%). No confidence level is applicable as this is non-probability sampling.

Study director: Gonzalo Adán. Doctor in political psychology and professor of psychometrics and social research techniques. SocioMétrica is a member of Insights + Analytics Spain.