Cristina Fernández de Kirchner and Axel Kicillof greeted each other coolly at the 47th anniversary event of the Abuelas de Plaza de Mayo. “They didn’t speak to each other, they looked like children,” the president of the organization, Estela de Carlotto, who sat between the former Argentine president and the current governor of the province of Buenos Aires, would later say.
In the backdrop of this image is the conundrum of the leadership of the Peronist movement, the main opposition force to the far-right Javier Milei government. A year after the legislative elections in Argentina, the internal conflict is now resolved by the leadership of the Justicialista Party (PJ) at the national level. Cristina Kirchner, who has held various positions at the head of the party over the past 20 years, is running for the first time as a candidate for the presidency of the PJ.
More than an intern
Cristina Kirchner is running in the November 17 elections against the governor of La Rioja – in the northwest of the country – Ricardo Quintela, in a rarefied climate. Axel Kicillof, a former loyal follower, her former Minister of Economy, did not publicly support her, which the former president considered a betrayal. He even compared him to Pontius Pilate, who, according to the Bible, authorized the crucifixion of Jesus and then washed his hands of it. “The Pontius Pilates and the Judas of Peronism are no more,” said the former president, accusing Kicillof of having supported Quintela’s candidacy. “The one who has to talk to Quintela is Axel, who is the one who supports him. “It is his ministers who are looking for support for him.”
The governor of Buenos Aires, a popular left-wing Peronist, distanced himself and spoke on the provincial social network far from the Buenos Aires media and networks. It is a mistake to think that this is a leader that I “raise or lower,” but it is especially a serious mistake to attack him. The logic of the subject or the traitor is a logic which has entered into crisis and which has given bad results. »
Facundo Cruz, consultant and political analyst, tells elDiario.es what is surprising about the former president’s candidacy for the Justicialista Party. “Cristina Fernández de Kirchner seeks to be the big decision-maker of the PJ for the next elections (mid-term in 2025 and presidential in 2027) and it is surprising that she is running for president of the party, since in the past she has not never tried to rely on the PJ. Néstor Kirchner also hesitated, but then he ran for the PJ and achieved a consensus. Even during the defeat of the Frente de Todos in 2015 (legislative elections), she represented Kirchnerist spaces.”
For Paola Zuban, political scientist and director of the consulting firm Zuban Córdoba, internal elections are welcome because they delimit the conflict to have the last word when deciding on legislative candidacies and the future presidential candidate. “It is very healthy that internal elections take place, which legitimize the one who wins and who will win is Cristina Fernández de Kirchner: according to the figures of my colleagues, she has support among the Peronist members from 70 to 30 (for Quintela) . This legitimizes him, this will give him the authority to organize space. In Argentine society, the positive image of Cristina is between 30 and 40 points, being higher in the province of Buenos Aires than in the rest of the country, and depending on the electoral contexts.”
However, the internal dispute could ultimately be resolved on the desk of Judge María Servini. Quintela revealed on Sunday the former president’s list’s attempts to suspend the PJ elections. The governor of La Rioja said he had received calls to convince him to accept a unity formula. The decision of the PJ Electoral Council to make official only the candidacy of Fernández de Kirchner and not that of Quintela, due to alleged irregularities in the mentions, led the governor of La Rioja to threaten to take legal action.
In Cristina Fernández’s attempt to be the space computer, tension arises with Axel Kicillof. A dispute over who exercises leadership. “Axel grew up under the figure of Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, but he established himself as a national figure. He was re-elected governor of the province of Buenos Aires, it is predictable that he wants to enter the presidential race in 2027,” Cruz told elDiario.es.
La Campora and Maximo
The coldness with which Cristina Fernández de Kirchner and Kicillof treat each other is part of the disagreements within the movement. “Hopefully the internal elections will serve to unify Peronism, a Peronism very centered in Buenos Aires and subject to the tensions and needs of AMBA (Metropolitan Area of Buenos Aires); What remains are isolated provincial Peronisms, with more local imprints, which do not respond to the party. The only organic Peronism is that of Formosa and Tierra del Fuego, the others are Peronisms, some in dialogue with Milei, others with local characteristics or who tried to distance themselves from Kirchnerism,” explains Zuban. Kirchnerist Peronism governs in four of Argentina’s 23 provinces – Buenos Aires, La Rioja, La Pampa and Formosa, to which is added Santiago del Estero, radical and ally – and has the first minorities in both houses of Congress.
Cristina Fernández de Kirchner and her son Máximo Kirchner, deputy and leader of La Cámpora, support each other in their political actions. La Cámpora, a group born 18 years ago and present in the province of Buenos Aires, where it has 12 municipalities, is the space most faithful to Cristina and Kicillof has never been a pure organic. Tensions between Máximo and Kicillof were highlighted by the allocation of positions in Argentina’s largest province.
In 2021, under the government of Alberto Fernández-Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, the conflict became explicit with the handing over of a good part of the administration of Buenos Aires to Martín Insaurralde (he was named coordinating minister of the provincial government) , to the detriment of Governor Kicillof’s closest circle. A scandal that involved Insaurralde during a luxury trip to Marbella a year ago led Kicillof, in his new leadership, to retain his core in key ministries and put up containment dikes in La Cámpora, in cost of straining relations with his former boss. .
The look in 2027
“A maxim in politics says that to defeat the king, you have to kill the king,” says Zuban and adds: “Cristina Fernández de Kirchner knows it: for Axel to be president, he must distance himself from Kirchnerism, it is natural evidence. path he will have to continue facing 2027. I do not think that the dispute between Cristina Fernández de Kirchner and Axel Kicillof will last too long. The expert provides data on the governor’s approval: “According to a report we presented last Sunday, Axel Kicillof has a national approval of 48% and a disapproval of 50.5% and, compared to December, the positive image increased (I had 59% disapproval). and 39% approval).
Consultant Cruz maintains that the process of revival of Peronism presents difficulties. “Cristina Fernández de Kirchner has always been a candidate over the last 20 years and her presence can be considered as an obstacle to the emergence of new leadership. Since the return of democracy in 1983, the cycles were 20 years. In 2001, the political generation that made the transition stepped down and the generation that rebuilt the Argentine state took over. For this political generation approaching their twenties, society is crying out for new faces, but this change has not yet happened. Not only is Cristina Fernández de Kirchner not retiring, she is not retiring, she is active. It is difficult for Peronism to renew itself.”
In addition to all this, the appointment of Cristina Fernández de Kirchner as head of the PJ will come a few days after the Federal Court of Cassation will validate or not the six-year prison sentence handed down against her by the Federal Oral Court in a corruption case. in a public work. The judgment includes a significant fact: the perpetual ban on holding public office.
Peronism, under the presidency of Alberto Fernández, has just experienced an electoral defeat with Javier Milei, who became president last December. The candidate for the presidency of the PJ, being vice president of the Fernández Executive, made public her questions about the economic orientation, especially after the legislative defeat of 2021 and the negotiations for an agreement with the IMF for the loan granted to the curator Mauricio Macri. .
A déjà vu?
The long-awaited unity of all sectors of Peronism, key to confronting the far-right chainsaw Milei, is faced with a question: could Cristina Fernández de Kirchner repeat her rivalry with Fernández and Kicillof?
“I would not think about what happened with Alberto Fernández – said Zuban – since he had no position in public opinion until Cristina Fernández de Kirchner presented him as a presidential candidate. Axel Kicillof has his own electoral base because he is governor, and because he is from another age, he represents the renewal within Peronism, as long as he manages to redefine an identity stripped of an identity Kirchnerist-Camporist. We must see how Kicillof maneuvers against La Cámpora, which is still looking for its space to manage power, especially in the province of Buenos Aires, where it has a greater territorial presence. For the rest, it’s marginal.
Political analyst Cruz points out that Kicillof and Cristina Fernández de Kirchner share a common ideology, but that the problem is one of leadership. “Kicillof believes that his time has come and sees in the background a broader and more transversal construction. Everything will depend on whether or not Axel decides to face Cristina Fernández de Kirchner and differentiate himself. Alberto Fernández’s memory is very fresh and there are fears that he will embark on the path of a similar configuration. “They ask Axel to stand out and not become a new Alberto.”
The president of the Abuelas of Plaza de Mayo admitted to having acted as mediator so that Kicillof and Cristina Fernández de Kirchner participated this Wednesday in the celebration of the Abuelas in the city of La Plata. Showing pity, Estela de Carlotto said: “They are not enemies, we are in the same country and they are both extraordinary people. »
