The Central Bank has in its possession weapons and many shells in order to attack before the exchange pressure observed these days and coming: interference in the future of the dollar market. While now he cannot intervene on the official market of changes or in dollars working in the stock market, he can do this in futures contracts in dollars.
In addition to the flow of dollars income, which is expected over the next three weeks for a new elimination of exporters, in case a bulky offer does not reach tension, the central opportunity to sell positions in the futures market of the dollar, as it was in May, with 2000 million US dollars equivalent to Australian dollars.
This intervention is useful for providing a signal of the market price, which can affect the remaining currency quote. In addition, this will not impose a veto in an agreement with the money fund, and there are also no BCRA shares that limits it. The only restriction is the main thing imposed by the market in which it is managed, which is equivalent to 9,000 million.
Big margin for intervention
“The Central Bank is authorized to sell up to 9,000 million US dollars in the future dollar. There is a gun, a battleship, aircraft carrier, rockets … There is everything that happens to throw a dollar. And the government said that he did not want the dollar to rise, but, on the contrary, he wants the dollar to dispute, ”says the financial analysis of Salvador Di Stefano.
The PPI research group evaluates that in June there was no BCRA intervention in the market in dollars. At least they did not observe significant movements that indicate this. Taking into account the trading position of almost 2000 million US dollars, which registered until May, they, according to the remaining margin, are about 7,000 million US dollars.
In any case, the economist Fernando Maral, the FMYA partner, according to estimates, the central will not use this resource to contain exchange pressures, but at the moment it will allow the exchange rate to swim in accordance with the supply and demand in the market. This would do this in the coming weeks, while the flow of exporters’ income remains.
In addition, PABLO REPETTO, the leader of the Aurum Securities research, warns that although the margin that remained for intervention is too wide, BCRA “cannot be played forever”, from the possible losses that he will generate for the organization and possible monetary production to comply with contracts.
“For example, if BCRA sold 500 million dollars in July on Tuesday, and yesterday’s height, which amounted to $ 7 in the contracts of this month, he must pay 35 billion dollars per market, which will leave the monetary broadcast. If in the end, up exists, exists up, losses should be marked daily. The results are paid or charged during the day, ”explains the repetition.
