In recent months, presenting quarterly results meant for Fluidra a little less than going to the dentist since it was obliged to adequately explain to the market what was due to the lower growth in its business and the change in environment currently experienced by the sector. the swimming pool on a global scale.
Now you can complete the digestion excess inventory that had accumulated in the supply chain after the boom What the pandemic and its consequences have meant for the entire sector in general and for Fluidra in particular. With a much more standardized model, its third quarter results were very well received by the investment community.
In fact, they have been the main catalyst for the rebound that Catalan stocks have experienced in recent days and which has led it exceed the 25 euro zone and reach maximums not seen since April 2022, more than two years ago.
In the aforementioned presentation last week, they even raised the question advice thanks to the increase in volumes, allowing leverage to be reduced to 2.3 times. From now on, the company hopes to obtain revenues of between 2,060 and 2,100 million euros, an EBITDA between 460 and 480 million and a cash profit per share of between 1.14 and 1.2 euros. “The results of North America and Europe stand out from the others, which are returning to growth after a drop of 5% in the first half,” they explain from Banco Sabadell.
“We expected a strong surge in the North American segment after the good results of certain competitors such as Pentair and Hayward,” underlines Jefferies. “We also highlight the good news from the distribution sector leader, Pool Corp, which anticipates a return to normal in sales and the supply chain,” they add.
The consensus of analysts collected by FactSet places the EBITDA that the group will achieve this year at 467, within the expected range. These days, analysts have also increased their valuations. However, the average of them, which exceeds 24 euros, remains below its current stock price. Likewise, half of the analysis houses recommend taking positions and only 11% suggest undoing them.
“In February, we argued that Fluidra would return to growth and that there was potential for analyst estimates to improve, which would translate into better stock performance once the market could once again focus on the good fundamentals of the company.” , they emphasize in Berenberg. “Their results showed that these forecasts are materializing despite the macro uncertainty that persists, although after the strong revaluation of the stock market in recent months, the upside potential is more limited,” they continue. “However, we believe they can continue to perform well in the coming year as expectations gradually improve,” they add.
“Despite the macroeconomic context, there are good reasons to believe in the good trend of growth and margins for next year,” concludes Berenberg. Thus, the consensus predicts that the company exceeds 500 million again of Ebitda in 2025, also supported by the cost reduction program.
