For decades, there has been talk with some regularity of the arrival of global peak oil, a theory (formulated by the geophysicist Mr. King Hubbert), which predicted that oil production would follow a bell-shaped curve, reaching a peak (zenith) before entering an inevitable and rapid decline due to oil depletion. This concept has since been widely debated, with the depletion of fossil fuels being a recurring concern for the energy community. However, several factors, including technological advances in the oil industry, have shown that Hubbert’s early predictions have not come true and are unlikely to come true in the near future. A good example is the world’s deepest oil well, currently being prepared in Colombia.. 30 years ago, it would have been unimaginable to extract oil miles under the sea. But today, it is not only possible, but could gradually become the norm. Oil will not disappear because it runs out, but because humans will replace it with a more efficient and cleaner source of energy.
Occidental Petroleum and Ecopetrol are preparing all the necessary equipment to explore the depths of Colombian Caribbean waters in search of natural gas and oil. The initial project already started is to drill the Komodo-1 well before the end of 2024 in the sea at a depth of almost 4 kilometers (more than 3,900 meters). As you can see in the illustration, Komodo-1 exceeds the world’s second deepest underwater well by 300 meters which is located in Angola and was drilled in 2021.
The effort to break the depth record in the water with Komodo-1 was made possible in part by improvements in marine seismic technology that allow exploration at greater depths and distances, as Ecopetrol’s offshore operations director, Elsa Jaimes, revealed in an interview with Bloomberg this summer.
Colombia explores its enormous potential offshore as some of the onshore or terrestrial reserves begin to run out. “They have the technology and they also have this huge potential that strengthens our portfolio,” Jaimes adds. Worldwide, more than 40 wells are expected to be drilled this year in seas at least 1,500 meters deep, which would allow 2024, the year of the largest ultra-deepwater drilling activity in a decadeaccording to industrial data provider Enverus.
“The fact that we can drill to these depths is what keeps us going.”says Dai Jones, director of global intelligence at Enverus. Growing demand for energy is also providing a boost, he noted.
The drillers offshore They measure wells in two ways: water depth and what’s called true vertical depth, or TVD. TVD measures the distance from the platform floating on the surface to the point on the seafloor where drilling will begin. TVD, on the other hand, measures the distance from the platform to the bottom of the well deep in the Earth.
The Colombian oil drama
This project aims (in addition to obtaining economic benefits, obviously) to revive the Colombian oil industry, which is going through a difficult time. This same Thursday, there was the sabotage of an oil pipeline that threatens to supply the country in shortage. Colombia produced more than one million barrels of oil per day in 2015. However, today the country’s industry is struggling to reach 800,000 barrels per day.
“The Colombian government has shifted its focus to renewable energy and suspended new oil and gas exploration licenses. The impact of this decision will weigh most heavily on oil due to the nature of the country’s hydrocarbon systems and recent discoveries of offshore gas supplies… “Consumption is expected to continue in a controlled decline, from an average of 790,000 barrels per day in 2023 to 620,000 by the end of the decade,” the International Energy Agency said in its latest forecast for 2030.
The President Gustavo Petro has terminated new exploration permitswhile also trying to ban the hydraulic fracturing (hydraulic fracturing) on Colombian territory. But this latest proposal failed this summer. Meanwhile, oil companies are looking to maximize the licenses and assets they already have, and this is the case with the Komodo-1 well. Since the exploration permit was granted in this area, Occidental and Ecopetrol will go deep (pun intended) to try to find commercially viable crude oil. The sea has become the new big challenge for crude oil producers around the world.
Oil under the sea
Oil companies around the world are investing huge sums of money in the search for crude oil in the deep sea. The evolution of the industry has been clear. First there was the exploitation of conventional oil on land. Later, hydraulic fracturing (fracking) emerged to also extract unconventional oil and gas from the land. Two good examples of the latter are the Permian Basin in the United States and Vaca Muerta in Argentina. The next step now is to extract as much as possible of the oil found under the sea at great depths.
SLB, the world’s largest oilfield services provider, estimates there is potential for more than $100 billion in offshore project commitments by 2024-25. “The offshore and deepwater oil industry is currently experiencing a remarkable renaissance, driven by the imperatives of energy security, regionalization and the supply of mature and disciplined North American shale oil,” Evercore ISI analyst James West said in a note to investors.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) also highlighted this trend in one of its latest forecast reports, noting that investments in maritime platforms and offshore exploration systems are soaring, reaching levels not seen in the last decade. Added to this are new oil discoveries at sea. Today, almost all new oil discoveries are in the deep sea: Guyana, Brazil, Suriname, Colombia, Senegal, Namibia. Depth no longer matters, what matters is recoverable crude oil.
Technology applied to oil
It seems that if oil continues to be used on a large scale and at some point becomes truly scarce, humans will be able to drill all the way to the moon and make a profit from this crude oil. Technological advances have radically transformed the industry’s ability to discover and extract oil. Technologies such as horizontal drilling, hydraulic fracturing (fracking), and deep-water drilling rigs have made it possible to access reserves that were previously inaccessible or uneconomic. This has led to the discovery and exploitation of large quantities of unconventional oil, such as shale oil and tar sands.
These techniques not only allow production to be maintained, but also increase the rate of extraction in areas where exhaustion was previously considered imminent. As a result, world oil production has exceeded Hubbert’s pessimistic forecasts, delaying the “peak” and increasing world reserves.
In addition, the energy required for oil extraction has been significantly optimized. Unlike the early decades of the 20th century, when the energy and logistical cost of oil extraction was relatively high, advances in energy efficiency, automation, and data control have significantly reduced energy consumption in extraction and processing operations. The development of technologies to drill deeper and more precise wells with fewer energy resources was a key factor in discrediting the peak oil theory. In short, what was considered a technical and energy limitation in oil extraction has been replaced by constant innovation.
China has a well in Uighur territory
Another well famous for its depth reached, in this case on land, was drilled by the Chinese petrochemical giant Sinopec, which successfully completed in 2023 a 9,432-meter-deep oil and gas well in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region (Xinjiang), in northwest China, setting a new record: it is the deepest onshore directional well in Asia, as the company itself revealed in November.
This engineering work was carried out in the Yuejin 3-3XC well, located in the Tarim Basin, belonging to the western region of Xinjiang (a region ethnically dominated by Uighurs).a Turkish-Muslim people who have been demanding more autonomy from Beijing for years) and rich in oil and gas resources. This well will reach a daily production capacity of more than 1,000 tons of oil (currently, it has started with 200 tons per day), according to Chinese media. To date, the deepest well was more than 8,800 meters deep, also operated by Sinopec, and was located in Sichuan.
The well is located in the Taklamakan, China’s largest desert. Local media reported that workers had completed the remarkable feat 100 percent, drilling to a depth of 9,432 meters and starting to extract oil and gas, setting a new record for the deepest drilling in Asia.
Oil remains the world’s primary energy source. As long as demand for it remains high, investment in improving extraction techniques will continue to grow, meaning that oil that previously did not exist (commercially) can exist to rise to the surface and supply the world.
