Never have elections on another continent been so crucial for Europe. The European Union, with the exception of certain far-right governments like that of Hungarian Viktor Orbán, is holding its breath in the face of the possibility of Donald Trump returning to the White House.
The concern is such that the European Commission has created a specific group to prepare the consequences of these elections on the old continent after four years of good understanding with the Biden administration and the scenario of the Republican’s victory is the most worrying in the world . known as Trump Task Force which, according to El Confidencial, is headed by a Spanish official, Alejandro Caínzos, who for several years has been part of the cabinet of the vice-president of competition, Margrethe Vestager.
In the midst of its struggle to strengthen its competitiveness against the rest of the powers, the EU awaits the arrival of the next tenant of the White House with concern about the drift that the trade war could take. During his first term, Trump imposed tariffs on European products, such as black olives, which particularly hurt the Spanish olive sector. Now the rhetoric is gone in crescendo and threatened to impose generic tariffs of 10% (which would be 60% for China and 100% for countries that do not use the dollar for trade). The effects would be very damaging for the European economy. A report from Goldman Sachs suggests that these 10% tariffs would cause a 1% drop in eurozone GDP.
The trade war, “certainty with Trump, possibility with Harris”
Generally speaking, Kamala Harris should follow a line more consistent with Biden’s mandate, which has however been characterized by protectionism. The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), with which Washington injected 400 billion euros in subsidies, caused enormous concern in European capitals, which warned of the “dangers” of this race and were forced to respond with measures such as equalizing offers to companies in this country to avoid leaks.
“The trade war seems a certainty with Trump and a possibility with Harris,” underline Judith Arnal and Federico Steinberg in an article published by the Elcano Royal Institute in which they consider that “a worsening of trade tensions would be a negative scenario” for the EU, even if it sees it as a window of opportunity: “An open trade conflict between China and the United States, even if it would be negative for global growth and cooperation, could give advantages to certain countries Europeans due to trade diversion. »
The other major area of concern is security and, in particular, aid to Ukraine, which is fundamental for the EU. The Republicans already made it difficult for funds to flow from Washington a few months ago and the big fear is that Trump will turn off the tap or even that his position will lead to a de facto capitulation by kyiv. “Trump claims he has a plan to ‘end the war in 24 hours’ once elected, or even during his transition period, but it’s unclear exactly how he would do it,” says associate analyst Giuseppe Spatafora for transatlantic relations. the European Institute for Security Studies (EUISS).
Ending the war in Ukraine, at what cost?
The fear most allies feel, and summarized by Spatafora, is that Trump’s plan involves a ceasefire at the current battlefield borders, which would mean “territorial concessions to Russia and a promise of Ukrainian neutrality in exchange of sovereignty guarantees”. It would be a hard blow for the line defended by Volodymyr Zelensky’s allies during almost three years of war, who reject the invasion of Ukrainian territory.
There are more catastrophic readings. “The biggest danger of a new Trump presidency is letting Russian President Vladimir Putin have his way with America’s allies and cut a deal with him while excluding Ukrainian input with a phone call If this were to happen, not only would Ukraine lose the war and its sovereignty, but the rest of Europe would be left alone to face the Russian threat and the declining world order. and the lack of will to improve and use them – combined with a neo-isolationist and detached United States, will not be able to deter Russia from further aggression, because war is the only way for the criminal regime to survive. “, warns Patrycja Sasnal, research director at the Polish Institute of International Affairs.
The war in Ukraine has awakened NATO from the “brain death” in which it found itself, according to French President Emmanuel Macron. And Europe, which has always subordinated its defense strategy to that of NATO, is wary of the possibility that the United States will turn its back on the organization. Harris is not a fan of transatlantic relations, but she should, once again, toe Biden’s line. But Trump’s fiery statements, encouraging Putin to attack countries that fail to meet the obligation to allocate 2% of GDP to defense, have triggered alarm in Europe.
“A new Trump administration could threaten to reduce support, even in areas such as intelligence sharing, or question Article 5 as leverage to push allies to spend more on defense,” Spatafora muses. “While Trump would be more divisive and dangerous for the EU – especially given his disinterest in continuing to support Ukraine and his intention to impose tariffs on European imports – it seems increasingly making it clearer that Biden will be the last American president truly concerned about this relationship. transatlantic”, collect Arnal and Steinberg.
Support for multilateral organizations is also expected to weaken given that during his term he withdrew from major international agreements such as those in Paris to combat climate change. A report from the think tank Strategic Perspectives highlights the decline in funds for institutions such as the UN, the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund or the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).
In the case of the conflict in the Middle East, the position of the Democratic candidate is closer to that which the EU adopts, with difficulty. Harris opted for a ceasefire while Trump encouraged Benjamin Netanyahu to “finish the job” of the massacre in Gaza. However, Harris is also not betting on a radical change in position towards Israel.
The European far right prepares bottles of champagne
And inside, EU leaders are largely worried about a victory for Trump’s populism in elections that will be held two days before the meeting of the European Political Community that will bring them together precisely in Budapest, where Orbán will host the summit. The far-right leader, who copied Trump’s motto for the rotating presidency of the EU Council which corresponds to Hungary this semester, assured that he would open a bottle of champagne if the Republican won. If the countdown drags on, you may not arrive in time to attempt to toast your counterparts.
“The current situation in European politics shows internal divisions and nationalist discourses in several member states. Trump could use the divide-and-conquer strategy with the European Union and undermine its unity,” says Strategic Perspective.
But beyond the geopolitical question, the great fear is that the germ of populism will continue to spread and that Trump will give even more wings to an extreme right which is gaining ground on the old continent. “European leaders worry about a continued, if not irreversible, decline in democratic standards if Trump returns to the presidency. Europeans are worried not only about US domestic politics – the danger of a spread of authoritarianism in the United States – but also about the impact on the international order, which they fear could suffer yet another setback. more serious with a second Trump term. “Many fear that a Trump comeback could embolden other populist-nationalist leaders in Europe and beyond, as happened during his tenure,” reflects Laura von Daniels, director of the US research division at the German Institute for Political Security Affairs.
