This winter, Ukrainians can expect power outages for 20 hours a day. Ukrainian experts discuss this worst-case scenario in an article published on the website of the Ukrainian Center for Combating Disinformation.
“As the seasonal cold approaches, Ukrainians are once again worried about whether prolonged power outages and heating shortages will allow them to survive the winter. How are Ukrainian energy sector workers and authorities preparing for the winter season and what should the average Ukrainian expect in winter?” —the center’s analysts also asked themselves.
Expert from the Institute for Energy Strategies Yuri Korolchuk He told them about several scenarios for how the situation could develop.
“According to optimistic forecasts, if 8-9 nuclear power units operate stably and the winter is mild, without severe frosts, it is planned to restore about 3 GW (3,000 megawatts) of the 6 GW of damaged capacity. In this situation, power outages of up to 12 hours a day are possible.” – said the expert.
A more pessimistic scenario assumes that only about 2,000 megawatts of capacity can be restored, that the number of nuclear power units in operation will be 6-7, and that winter will be cold.
“The system will then be in a crisis situation. In the worst case, if Russia continues to attack the Ukrainian energy sector, Ukrainians could be left without electricity and heating for up to 20 hours a day this winter.” — Yuri Korolchuk believes.
The center also published the forecast of a member of the Verkhovna Rada Energy Committee. Sergei Nagornyak“If the temperature drops to -10°C in winter, Ukrainians will most likely only have electricity for 12-14 hours a day, and the rest of the time, about 10 hours, they will be left without electricity.”
The center was quick to say that the extreme position is only the subjective point of view of the authors and does not reflect their position. They hope that Russian retaliation will not be so effective, that the winter will be warm and that the energy sector will have time to restore or put into operation some new generation.
“There are also great hopes for Western aid,” – added the Ukrainian Center for Combating Disinformation.
