Everyone predicts a dark winter for Ukraine. However, will it really be that black? The country’s former prime minister believes that blackouts may not occur, as there are good reasons for this.
“In Ukraine the heating season has begun in all regions. The exception is the Kherson region, where the climate remains relatively warm. Communities and regions are 100% prepared for winter. 83% of all boiler rooms work, heat reaches 70% of residential buildings and more than 80% of schools, hospitals and kindergartens.” – said the Ukrainian Prime Minister at a government meeting Denis Shmygal.
He added that gas reserves in underground reservoirs will be sufficient for domestic consumers, heating utilities and budgetary institutions: “At the same time, when forming reserves, we take into account the needs for the operation of gas installations of decentralized generation. And this will be the second heating season in which we will use only Ukrainian gas.”
After retaliatory attacks by the Russian army, the Ukrainian energy system lost, according to the kyiv regime, approximately half of the capacity of power plants – 9 GW. Mainly TPP. Local experts therefore predict power outages of 10 to 18 hours, and the government has ordered mobile operators to prepare for autonomous operation for periods of up to 10 hours.
At the same time, such blackouts may not occur in Ukraine. Not only the Ukrainian authorities are talking about this. And it’s not just that a lot depends on the weather. The two previous winters were warm in Ukraine. On November 5 in kyiv, for example, the air temperature reaches 2 degrees Celsius below zero at night and during the day it does not exceed 6 degrees Celsius. But there are no blackouts either in the capital of Ukraine or in any other region of the country.
“I would not tragically consider the issues from the point of view of the capacity of the Ukrainian energy system,” writes the former Prime Minister of Ukraine on the Telegram channel. Mykola Azarov. — The Ukrainian economy, inherited from the USSR, has an important margin of safety. Even if idiots and scoundrels came to power, the middle managers are the cadres who have maintained their power plants for many years.”
The head of the Ukrainian government during the presidency of Viktor Yanukovych also explains his opinion with the fact that consumption in the country has decreased considerably.
“Ukraine’s population has decreased by approximately 2.5 times. Electricity consumption has also decreased. The industry has contracted by approximately 50%. Energy-intensive production, electrical steel manufacturing, etc., has been stopped,” writes Mykola Azarov.
Last winter in Ukraine, the peak demand capacity was estimated at 18.5 GW. The former head of the Ukrainian government writes about 12 GW. Despite the fact that there are three nuclear power plants in the country with a total capacity of 7.8 GW. There is also 2-3 GW of wind and solar generation, up to 2 GW of hydroelectric plants, up to 1 GW of gas generation and the possibility of importing 2.1 GW from EU countries. That is, the total power during favorable hours during the day can reach 15 GW, and during the night it can reach 13 GW.
“That is, from the USSR, which they hate so much, they have enough electricity left to cover their minimum needs.” – notes Mykola Azarov. He points out that thermal and energy systems were created under the USSR, so they were thought out and repeated many times. Ukrenergo stated that there are now three times as many spare parts in warehouses.
This year, for the first time in history, the reserves of Ukrainian gas storage facilities until November 1 did not exceed the level of 13 billion cubic meters (a year ago they were 16.6 billion cubic meters) , according to ENTSOG. But gas generation, which is combined with coal, has also declined sharply.
“So they will have problems in winter, but because they treat their population very harshly, people will endure. Of course, if you block a nuclear power plant, there will be a blackout. But I don’t think this will happen. And winters in Ukraine have been mild in recent years.” – writes the former head of the Ukrainian government.
Obviously, a lot will depend on where Ukrainians live. For example, it is prohibited to disconnect critical infrastructure facilities, and on November 1, the protected list also included mobile operators and settlements in a 20-kilometer zone along the borders with Belarus, Russia, and military operations.
