Traditionally Democratic, the Latino vote is becoming less predictable
In the race for the White House, Latinos have traditionally provided broad support for the Democratic candidate. Only Ronald Reagan (37% in 1984) and George W. Bush (40% in 2004), popular among this community, stood out on the Republican side.
However, in the last ten years, this support has crumbled. During his reelection in 2012, Barack Obama led his opponent by 44 points in the Hispanic vote, compared to only 21 points for Joe Biden against Donald Trump in 2020.
According to the most recent polls, this margin would even fall to 14 points in favor of Kamala Harris this year, the lowest score ever achieved by a Democratic candidate.
