Today, Western stocks face the last day of the week with a clear bearish bias. After almost a month of bullish rally, the fears that surfaced in early August in markets on both sides of the planet and led to falls of up to 12% in Japan, have once again reverberated on the trading floors of the most important stock exchanges in the world. red numbers have spread throughout the week, although on this occasion, yes, the declines have been milder than in early August while we wait to see what has been flagged as one of the most relevant catalysts to watch: the US unemployment rate since August.
The market consensus is that the employment figure could reach 4.1%, two-tenths lower than the current figure. In fact, analysts surveyed expect this figure to determine the Fed’s rate-cutting decision at its September meeting. And the fact is that while the central bank is expected to cut rates, 25 basis pointsThe weakness of these data encourages those who are betting on a sharp drop in 50 basis points.
In this context, in recent days the possibilities have increased considerably that before more significant increases in the Ibex 35, we will see a consolidation or correction of part of the rise that began on August 5 from the 10,298 points and that has brought the Spanish selection to be on the verge of recovering all the fall from the peaks it had established last June. 11,469 points.
“Everything indicates that in the short term the Ibex 35 has peaked in the 11,436 points and from this environment, a correction phase of the previous rise could have begun. The first important support is located at 11,000 points, corresponding to an adjustment of 38.20% of the rise described. Without reaching it, I hesitate to believe in a possible rebound,” says Joan Cabrero, technical analyst and strategist of eco-retailer.
“By losing 11,000 points, the information that the market would give us is that the consolidation could be broader and deeper, and could go up to 10,690-10,740 points, where it would be a buying opportunity,” he said. This range and buying zone is 4.5%.
Europe approaches its first support in weekly closing
In Europe, sales continue to prevail from the strong resistance zone of the 4,985/5,000 points. Selling pressure suggests that the psychological environment of the entire 5,000s has constituted a ceiling for the rebound and that it could become the origin of a correction that “should serve to adjust part of the strong rebound of the 4,474 points“explains Cabrero.
“If it chooses to correct 38.20%, it would mean seeing a drop to 4,790 points,” he emphasizes, “and if it breaks through, it is not excluded that the drop could worsen the situation. 4,670-4,650 pointswhere I would be in favor of a new purchase of the European stock market.”
