The world woke up on November 6 to news that, for many – or rather for many – represents years of setbacks in the fight for civil rights, women’s rights or even the environment. Starting next January, Donald Trump will be the new president of the United States of America.
The results of these US presidential elections come just six days before the start of the 29th United Nations Conference of the Parties (COP) on climate change. The climate summit in Baku (Azerbaijan) is being held in a year that promises to be the hottest and, now, it will also do so with the shadow of the change of president in the White House hanging over it.
And Donald Trump’s climate agenda is controversial to say the least. Some of the points he has made during the months of campaigning are about repealing regulations on energy efficiency in homes. Or reverse plans to build wind power plants offshore. Either remove subsidies for electric vehicles, or increase them for fossil fuels. And a long etcetera.
This is what, according to what he announced during his last meetings, will happen in the United States with his return to the Oval Office. He has been causing small “climatic earthquakes” since he was elected Republican Party candidate. The reason: its declaration of intent, which is none other than dismantle, among other things, the environmental policies of the Biden administration.
The “Trump effect”
One of those responsible for planning this COP29 recognized this summer in the magazine rolling stone And Capital and main that Trump’s return “scares” regarding the future of the climate summit. And those who have followed these UN appointments over the past decade still remember the devastating effect of the American tycoon’s arrival as president in 2017.
Already at that time dismantled the policies that his predecessor, Barack Obama, had put in place. He even formally abandoned the Paris Agreement signed in 2015.
He “The Trump effect”declares the same COP29 delegate to the American media, “dominates” all the conversations and negotiations that rev up the summit’s engines. Well, the decisions made by the new US president will determine the course of the global climate agenda for years to come. Above all, as happened during Trump’s first term, for his most skeptical allies.
The delicate balance in which the COP climate negotiations are taking place could be disrupted if the countries that have contributed the most to global warming do not live up to their example.
Of course, as Ricardo Martínez, principal researcher at the think tank The CIDOB of Barcelona, in a recently published article, considers the current crossroads as an opportunity. “If the United States were to withdraw from international climate action again, The European Union could take on the role of global leader, in cooperation with China“, writing.
“Make America great (again)”?
Here are some of the actions Trump is expected to take when he arrives at the White House regarding America’s climate agenda:
Changes at the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA, for its acronym in English). This entity would be one of the first affected – as it already was during his first term – by, as Trump says, the decisions “based on questionable scientific data” that it took.
More specifically, he says this in reference to regulations relating to the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions or air quality. All of these measures were carried out under the aegis of the scientific consensus that the climate crisis is real and has been accelerated by the hand of man.
“Dismantle” the Biden administration. The Republican assured that he would cancel the Inflation Reduction Act and all regulations aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions from industry and vehicles.
No more oil. The man who will likely be president of the United States in 2025 wants the Department of the Interior to increase oil and gas exploitation on public land. It also aims to have the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission prioritize fossil fuel projects and ignore their impact on greenhouse gas emissions in projects related to gas pipelines and gas export facilities liquefied natural.
“Goodbye, goodbye” to climate change
Removing climate change from the agenda, after having denied, minimized and ridiculed it during its rallies, seems a logical step for the new Trump administration. But What we don’t talk about, even if it doesn’t seem to exist, doesn’t magically disappear..
Global consensus, based on compelling scientific evidence collected throughout the 20th century, demonstrates that climate change and global warming are real. And to make matters worse, they have been accelerated by human intervention.
The specialized page on the climate crisis Carbon File set to work to measure the real consequences – given in hand – of Trump’s return to the White House. And the results speak for themselves.
“A victory for Donald Trump in the elections would mean 4 billion additional tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO₂eq) emissions in the United States, compared to Joe Biden’s plans”, they say in a study. This, they warn, would lead to global climate damages of more than $900 billion.
Projections of US emissions with a new Biden or Trump administration.
These 4,000 million CO₂eq are equivalent to the combined annual emissions of the European Union and Japanor those of the 140 least emitting countries in the world. In other words, Trump’s return to the White House – if he keeps his anti-climate promises – will mean that by 2030, the United States will have single-handedly counteracted all the positive effects of the rest of the planet.
Furthermore, according to Carbon Fileits negative counterpart would “double all global savings resulting from the deployment of clean energy, such as solar or wind, over the past five years.” But not only that, now “It is very likely that the United States will also fail to meet its global climate commitments,” he added..
The country’s current goal, under the Paris Agreement, would be to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 50 to 52 percent by 2030. Under the Republican regime, it is expected to reach a maximum of 28 percent. – and that’s if he doesn’t dismantle all the projects. which have already started.
Of course, the scenarios drawn by Carbon File They do not include an increase in exploitation and consumption of fossil fuels, but rather maintain current levels. But experts predict a second term “even more extreme for the environment than the first”.
To make such a prediction, they take into account not only the meetings of the former president, but also the statements of his advisers and members of his team. Even the drift trumpeter of the Republican Party as a whole.
From Tutor warn: “Unlike this first chaotic legislature, it is now designed a much more methodical second term based on the promotion of fossil fuel productionsidelining renowned climate scientists and repealing laws that control emissions linked to global warming.
