Donald Trump will return to occupy the White House for the next four years and Spanish banking entities are not digesting this news well. with an average drop in Ibex Banks of 4.5% on Wednesday, one of the largest in a single session since the start of the year. BBVA leads these declines with losses above 6%.
This reaction is completely different from that of the rest of the European stock markets, with prices tinged green today. “Companies in the energy and banking sectors are thus reacting, with caution and decline, to the possibility of a return of Trump to the White House and to the risk of a global trade war which could affect the European exportsin case the future Republican president imposes significant customs tariffs,” underlines Sergio Ávila, IG analyst.
Excerpted from “Thus, companies financed by these entities that export directly to the United States will likely see their exports decline due to tariffs. »
The firm says BBVA is the biggest victim because Mexico accounts for half of its net profitwhile 80% of its exports are destined for the United States. “On the other hand, around 40% of Santander’s net profit comes from South America and Mexico, with significant exports to the United States and therefore also affected by tariffs.” Thus, after Trump’s victory, the reduction in economic activity internationally will affect all banks. “Another factor by which we can see that the drop that Donald Trump’s protectionist measures could generate in global economic growth, and specifically in Europe, which could reach 1% of GDP next year, forces the ECB to cut interest rates more aggressively than expectedaffecting the results of entities in the sector.
The currency effect is another of the reasons highlighted by Antonio Castelo, iBroker analyst. “A Trump victory would particularly harm emerging market currencies, which would particularly harm BBVA, due to its exposure to Mexico and, to a lesser extent, Turkey. Santander could also be harmed in this way, but, having a significant presence in “The United States could benefit from an electoral victory for Trump, since his policies tend to favor financial deregulation,” he indicates.
At mid-European session, Bankinter already lost 2.8%, Banco Santander 3.4%, CaixaBank 4%, Unicaja 4.6%, Sabadell more than 5% and BBVA lost more than 6%.
