Trump’s commercial “trick” is going to reach the end. Although he reached an agreement with Vietnam and the United Kingdom, only five days remains to come the moratorium, and mass taxes announced on the day of exemption are activated. Although the next purpose, it seems, is the European Union, with active conversations The uncertainty is complete And both sides do not seem distant yet. Consequently, American companies are afraid that the disagreements are all healing, and they will begin to buy massively in order to completely fill their warehouses and prepare a kind of winter or commercial glaciation caused by tariff chaos, which can come from July 9, a key date.
As ants, before the arrival of winter, the companies in Europe and the USA fill their “pantries” before the arrival of a positive winter. Although there is still no specific data in imports, this is clearly visible in maritime trade, which Act with advanced ordersThe field according to the last global S&P report, “was received by a environment in which there is no certainty of what will happen in conversation, and carriers put great opportunities on the European route IEUU in this situation.”
According to the agency, the potential deployed by the Maritime Industry for July This is 332,811 TEU (a sea measure that means a unit of equivalent of 20 feet). To understand the magnitude of this data, these are the highest numbers over the past twelve months. And it is not only that they prepared their ships for the orders of the tsunami from the eastern coast, but the vast majority is already closed, so this great collection already seems to be a reality. According to the data, only the power of 24,849 Teu remained empty, that is, only 7.45% without awarding for the whole month, despite the record capacity.
And these good figures come precisely in conditions of weakness, and demand fell in the first quarter of the year. Import from Northern Europe in The USA amounted to 196 580 TEU in May, According to Piers, the indicator below the maximum, still reached this year 212 730 TEU, is also part of the S&P Global. Casper Ellerbek, Director for World Sea Transport, DHL Global Foruring, explained that in this trend you can see a “certain degree” of overtaking on transatlantic routes in the West in some sectors, but indicated this, given the uncertainty that surrounds this commercial route, it soon guarantees a 100% reason.
From the Association of the charger of Spain, they explain their concern about what will happen since July 9, if there is no agreement when they expect that all this activity in the 180s in turn. “If Tariff replacement (from 11% to 50%) As of July 9, most likely, many importers encourage freezing purchases (if there is still an interest in fulfilling orders after promoting a high season) to avoid higher rates. This, in turn, will increase shipping lines to reduce their services, again increasing the number of “empty sails”. “
A truce is approaching the end
What will happen on July 9, if nothing changes? The reality is that at that time a period of grace will enter into force 50%of the total tariff. Currently, most products already have 10% of the total tariff, despite negotiations. There are also 25% of cars for cars and pieces and 50% to steel and aluminum.
The most likely option in any case is that the blood does not reach the river. Scott of the United States himself, the Minister of Finance of the United States, spoke about the agreement with various countries to progress correctly, but, most likely, it will be required to slightly expand the deadline. “Yeah We managed to close 10 or 12 of 18 important agreements I think that we could allow trade on the Day of Labor (September 1). “This implies a minimum agreement on the extension of negotiations and a truce for several months.
Trump did not agree, although the Republican usually plays strong during negotiations. This stated that for its part, it is not necessary to expand negotiations And a truce, which was enough over time, which is already on the table, or conversations with new assets follow.
“The most likely result is a combination of very limited agreements that would allow the United States to provide new extensions”
From Europe, they believe that it is impossible to reach a complete agreement on time, but to the base. On Thursday, this was presented in the same president of the European Commission Ursula von der Lain, claiming that “It is impossible to reach an agreement on detail “Of course, he said, he said that the “principle of agreement” can be achieved, which serves as the basis for following conversations. According to this, the idea is to achieve a consensus with Washington to leave the fees by 10%. Something, which seems to have a good recognition, but the problem is how to land in the sectors and specific sectors that are attacked or in the same way. For example, the pharmaceutical industry, engine or steel.
From the capital economy, they explain that “the most likely result, in the visible one, is a combination of very limited agreements that would allow the United States to provide new extensions without losing prestige.” In fact, “Trump said a longer pause This will not be a big problem. But, given its unpredictability, we do not exclude the possibility that some countries are faced with tariffs for the day of release from next week. “Despite the agreement with Vietnam,” we suspect that other economies of Southeast Asia can be the most vulnerable, given its large commercial imbalance with the United States and limited diplomatic influence. “
Influence on the economy and data
These movements, caused by commercial uncertainty, do not benefit anyone. On the one hand, the costs of sea trade are significantly increased, as emphasized earlier. Fixions for bottles are produced, which increase prices, increase inflation and cause Delays in global production chains. Although the blood did not reach the river, it is the threat of chaos in international trade.
The load load index in Shanghai (SCFI) grows by 30%. A sharp increase in the rates of point containers is made in response to the agreement reached between China and the United States. This principle of the agreement had a double influence on the demand for containers. On the one hand, optimism led to a sudden restoration of activity. At the same time, the fear that the gap of negotiations caused Companies begin to accumulate goods and goods in a hurry They need that all sea transport passes.
“Recent and sudden strengthening short -term balance between demand and offer In the global marine transportation of containers, he changed the tendency to reduce the indicators that began in January, ”they comment on the specialized company in Drewry’s sea transport.
The Chinese government insisted on recent statements that it would not accept any commercial agreement with the United States on violation of its interests a few days after the term of July 9, proposed by Donald Trump, expires to try Close the final conditions of negotiations In the middle of a truce in the tariff war.
The Ministry of Trade indicated last Friday that the Asian giant and the United States confirmed detailed information about the agreement on the agreement reached in early June in London, for which Beijing would accelerate export requests “Controlled products”, While Washington will let down a “series of restrictive measures” against the country.
Now the ministry tightened its message and warned that “China will firmly oppose any agreement achieved at the expense of its interests for the alleged reduction of tariffs … If this happens, it happens, China will never accept this and will be strongly against To protect his legal rights, ”he said to a representative of the ministry, in statements by the Chinese state newspaper Global Times.
Influence on the economy of this type of movements could already be seen in the first quarter of the year, the US economy suffered Economic reduction of a sudden increase imports (they introduce the subtraction of GDP). Although these movements are usually short and punctual, they affect the expectations of agents and can generate a decrease in consumption and investment due to caution, reducing longer economic activity.
“We have the current tariffs that will probably destroy about two -thirds of the trade that we had with China. This is not like a commercial world. ”
Moreover, scientists throughout history demonstrated a close relationship between International trade in growth And such an economy. If international trade suffers, the economy will also do this, the ability to create employment, dynamism and activity.
The heterogeneous influence of uncertainty on trading work, prepared by Ibrahim Nana, by the Wedraogo and Sampaved Jules Tappsob, Economists of the IMF, empirically examined how uncertainty affects international trade. Using a model applied to 143 countries from 1980 to 2021, The authors come to the conclusion that “the standard deviation in global uncertainty is associated with 4.5% of the decline in bilateral trade.” This autumn is more pronounced when uncertainty proceeds from the country -immortal, which indicates that the consequences of demand are more serious than the influence of the proposal. Studies also demonstrate that trade in industrial and fuel products is especially sensitive to the peaks of uncertainty.
Even if it doesn’t look like it Chaos is far from completeAccording to Paul Krugaman, the Nobel Prize for Economics and one of the greatest experts in the world of international trade: “This is not the end of a commercial war,” says Professor Krugman.
“We have current tariffs that probably They will destroy about two thirds of trade What we had with China. This is not like a commercial world, ”said an expert on international trade.
Nevertheless, there is an agreement or not, international trade will probably not be the same. The agreements that Trump has reached today leave the frame Much more protectionist than before. Meanwhile, the risk that negotiations fell with great partners, such as the EU or China, can transfer the world to a kind of winter or commercial glaciation, which will return to this imported area of the world economy at levels not observed about 80 years.
