He Former US President Donald Trump, Republican candidateyou can win the presidential elections on November 5although he is trailing Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee, in the overall polling average, which reflects the country’s general sentiment. This can happen as in the 2016 presidential electionswhen Hillary Clinton lost the electoral vote and with it the White House, even though she won the popular vote. Why can Trump win in 2024 like he did in 2016, losing the popular vote? The key is in the undecided states (Swing States), that together total 94 electoral votes. Donald Trump It takes him 270 to reach the White House. According to surveys, she has 219 insured. Meanwhile, Kamala Harris has 208. Meanwhile, 111 are in the air.
Winner Takes All (Winner takes all). This means that winning every state wins every electoral vote in every state, even if it wins by the smallest margin.
Red states, which is the color Republicans are identified by, will vote for Trump:
Florida (30 electoral votes).
Ohio (17 electoral votes).
Texas (40).
Maine (Quarter 2) (1).
Alaska (3).
Iowa (6).
Kansas (6).
Missouri (10).
Mountain (4).
South Carolina (9).
Blue states, which is the color Democrats are identified with:
Colorado (10 electoral votes).
Illinois (19).
New Jersey (14).
Oregon (8).
Maine (Quarter 1) (1).
Maine (General) (2).
Minnesota (10).
New Mexico (5).
Undecided States (Swing States)that both candidates need to win. Here are where we’ll see them campaigning in the coming weeks:
Arizona (11).
Georgia (16).
Michigan (15).
Snowfall (6).
New Hampshire (4).
North Carolina (16).
Pennsylvania (19)
Wisconsin (10).
These two states recently joined the list of undecided: Virginia (13) tends to lean toward the Democrats.
Nebraska (District 2) (1) is trending Republican.
Donald Trump is performing better in swing states than in national polls. He is ahead in Arizona and North Carolina. Meanwhile, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are tied in Pennsylvania, a crucial state for Kamala Harris if she wants to win the White House. For this reason, Kamala Harris has started visiting these swing states, where moderate white middle-class voters are key, among whom she has downgraded her left-wing policies to get them to vote for her.
In 2016, Donald Trump won the election against Hillary Clinton by winning the swing states by 1.7 points, enough to win the White House. Instead, lost the national popular vote by 2.1 pointsIn both elections, there was a gap of about 3 to 4.5 points in Trump’s favor between the national popular vote and the battleground states.
Before 2016, when Trump won the election despite losing the popular vote in 2000, Republican George W. Bush, then governor of Texas, beat Al Gore, then the Democratic vice president with Bill Clinton, which cost Ralph Nader dearly. split the vote by running as a third candidate and the Monica Lewinsky Scandal. So Gore won the popular vote by 0.5 points, but Bush won the election with 271 electoral college votes.The election was held in Florida, where Bush won by just 537 votes. For all that, Trump can surprise on November 5, the day of the presidential election, as he did in 2016.
