ohWe will run out of champagne in the Kremlin and out of ammunition in the trenches of Donbass. Donald Trump’s return to the White House is excellent news for Vladimir Putin. It does not bode well for Ukraine’s chances of negotiating a good position against Russia. Trump II also deals a blow to transatlantic solidarity: this concept is indifferent to the Republican. His victory in the November 5 elections isolates Europeans. It places them before a historical responsibility: to trust in their forces to ensure their defense against Russian expansionism.
A strategic upheaval is underway. Perhaps it was inevitable, but it has been accelerated by the American vote. General De Gaulle’s prophecy comes true: one day the United States will leave the Old Continent. He must become an adult unless he relents on what is most dear to him: the inviolability of borders, the non-use of force, support for emerging liberal democracies. The United States is leaving, a strategic Europe must be born. If the European Union (EU) does not respond to this call, it will suffer a world dominated by power blocs that have only one rule in relations between States: the balance of power.
For now, Vladimir Putin is enjoying great political success in the war of aggression he is waging against Ukraine. The man returning to the presidency of the United States promised to suspend military and civil aid from Washington to kyiv. There is no reason not to take it seriously. “Plus a penny” for Ukraine, Trump vowed, who intends to end the fighting “in twenty-four hours”. We know how. A ceasefire along current lines will leave between 20% and 25% of the country in Russian hands.
zone of influence
Trump accepts the Russian diktat of a Ukraine forced to adopt a form of strategic neutrality: no membership in NATO, or a NATO without substance; The United States has no intention of deploying a single soldier to Ukraine to ensure the defense of the ceasefire line. will be “the matter of Europeans »says Trumpist America. For Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, the Trump plan looks like a surrender.
Trump underestimates, or does not understand, Putin’s true war objectives, which Russia has proclaimed since February 2022. The Kremlin wants a government in kyiv that is under its control and that, of course, applies a policy of destabilizing Ukraine, but also from Georgia and Moldova, to reestablish the zone of influence that Russia claims over its near abroad (the Belarusian tyrant Alexander Lukashenko is already in command).
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