Trump’s resounding victory could, should, be an opportunity for Europe, the EU, to react by seeking more economic dynamism, more civil and military strategic autonomy. It doesn’t look like he’ll make it. It is divided and European politics – at 27 and in each of its member states – after this victory will tend to further normalize its extreme right. From France, Macron was yesterday one of the first European leaders to congratulate Trump, calling for “a more united and stronger Europe”. Do you believe it? This would be necessary in a world where uncertainty is growing and democracy is faltering and generating results like this. It will be difficult, if not impossible. Unless Trump forces him to do so, despite himself.
Trump, always unpredictable, perhaps less this time, arrives stronger than before, with a clear victory and with the experience of a first term, even if he will quickly realize that the world has changed. The United States and the West govern less. The next president will have relatively little difficulty keeping one of his promises on the international stage: ending the war in Ukraine. It is enough to turn off the tap of military aid to kyiv, even if it is this aid that benefits the military-industrial complex, today rather what is called Deep Stateto whom it will compensate, and convince Putin of a pact that leaves the invaded country outside NATO, which is Moscow’s central objective. Once again, after Afghanistan and Iraq, the Europeans who supported kyiv could find themselves in a very uncomfortable and divided position. In any case, there was no unity on this subject either. Even Olaf Scholz now wants to present himself as “chancellor of peace”. Moreover, pro-Russian Europeans are also pro-Trump. And against China? Will Europe be able to maintain its autonomy? This will be a decisive question, but that remains to be seen. Today, Europe continues to need the United States in many areas, from technology to defense to American cultural and energy dominance. And there is a reason Netanyahu cheered Trump’s victory so much, despite Biden’s unconditional and much-needed support for Israel and its ongoing wars in the Middle East.
