In a matter of weeks, French President Emmanuel Macron has gone from wanting to marginalize Marine Le Pen’s party to making it the arbiter of the stability of the future government. On the evening of the first round of the legislative elections on June 30, with the far right clearly in the lead, Macron assured that the priority was to “avoid the imminent danger of an absolute majority for the National Rally,” which he called for. “A broad, clearly democratic and republican concentration as the second round approaches.”
The center coalition and the left-wing union within the New Popular Front (NFP) had then reached an agreement to form a “republican front” against the far right, calling on some candidates to withdraw and support political rivals available in the constituencies. defeat the far-right candidate. This blockade contained the advance of Le Pen’s party, which, against all expectations, came third in the elections, while the progressive coalition established itself as the leading force in the National Assembly.
This Thursday, two months after this meeting, the president appointed as prime minister the conservative Michel Barnier, whose party (Les Républicains) did not want to participate in this agreement aimed at forming a cordon sanitaire against Le Pen and her allies. His survival in power and the stability of his government now depend largely on the extreme right, the very one that Macron called to leave power.
Barnier’s appointment revealed Macronism’s approach to the right. Although the coalition of left-wing parties holds the most seats, the French president rejected the candidacy of Lucie Castets, proposed by the NFP. A government “based solely on the program and parties proposed by the alliance with the most deputies, the New Popular Front, would be immediately censored by all the other groups represented in the National Assembly,” the president justified.
Le Pen’s blessing
The French president has consulted Marine Le Pen and other political leaders several times in recent days to find out their position on possible candidates to lead the government. The guarantees that the far-right leader gave the president in the event of a motion of censure against the government could have played a decisive role in Barnier’s election, according to left-wing MPs.
“We are almost completely certain that if Michel Barnier was able to be appointed by President Macron, it is because the National Rally, the extreme right, gave a sort of guarantee,” denounced this Thursday the former socialist president and current deputy François Hollande, for whom the new Prime Minister will have to “explain” himself on this point to the National Assembly.
Following the announcement by the Élysée, Le Pen gave the green light to this nomination. He assured that the new Prime Minister “seems to meet at least the first criterion” requested by his party, “namely someone who is respectful of the different political forces”. “He is a man who has never publicly scorned the National Group, who has never excluded our party. “He is a man of dialogue.”
Michel Barnier’s position in favour of a moratorium on immigration, expressed during his party’s primaries in 2021, also seems to have played an important role in Le Pen’s assent, who was pleased that “for once, there is no one named”. immigrationist “crazy” for this position, in his words. Barnier – like the far-right leader – has proposed a referendum that would allow a “shield” to be included in the Constitution that would allow the French authorities to ignore Community law on immigration.
For now, the new tenant of 57 rue de Varenne, the Prime Minister’s residence, has the mission of “forming a unity government in the service of the country,” according to Macron. He will have to find the right balance in the composition of the Government, which will give a first indication of his ability to convince. For now, he has committed to “respecting all political forces” represented in Parliament, without “sectarianism,” an allusion to Le Pen’s party, but with which he could also refer to France Insoumise, a left-wing party, which several voices from the center and right equate with the extreme right.
Cazeneuve Option
In recent weeks, Macron had explored the possibility of nominating the socialist Bernard Cazeneuve, whom he has met several times and who could have gathered a sufficient majority of center and left-wing deputies. The reasons that led to Cazeneuve’s exclusion are not yet known. Part of the French press points out that the socialist had warned that he would try to cancel the controversial pension reform promoted by Macron during the last legislature and that the French president is trying to preserve it at all costs.
Several members of the Socialist Party, however, point the finger at their own ranks. “We could have had a left-wing prime minister, in line with the French vote. There was a name, that of Bernard Cazeneuve, and it was my own party that prevented his nomination,” declared Paris Mayor Anne Hidalgo. “Michel Barnier is a respectable man, but I feel a deep anger because my party had the opportunity and did not live up to history.”
In any case, another NFP party, France Insoumise, has promised to activate a motion of censure against Barnier as soon as possible. It is likely that, with this party, ecologists, communists and a part of the socialists will vote. With a favorable vote from a good part of the 193 left-wing deputies, the position of the 142 far-right parliamentarians will be decisive (289 deputies out of 577 are needed to force the prime minister to resign).
For the moment, Le Pen’s party is not considering an automatic motion of censure and has announced that it will wait for Barnier’s general political speech and his first steps.
“We don’t know what commitments the President of the Republic has made with Marine Le Pen, and we still don’t know Michel Barnier’s political orientations,” declared political scientist Frédéric Sawicki in an interview with The conversation. “But it can only be maintained if significant concessions are made to the National Group. This is equivalent to giving control to this party.
“Demand coexistence”
“The way I would like to base my mandate is one in which everyone is in their place: the president must preside, the government must govern, and parliament must be respected and listened to,” explained Michel Barnier in 2021, during his Republican primary campaign. He then severely criticized the “verticality” and “solitude” with which Macron exercised power. Now, the two men must create a new relationship and a tandem unprecedented in recent French political history.
The Elysée speaks of ‘coalition’ (contraction of coalition and cohabitation – as we call in France the coexistence of a president and a prime minister of different political colour) or “demanding coexistence” to describe this new situation.
Thus, a new stage also opens in the final stretch of Macron’s mandate, who saw his party deprived of an absolute majority in 2022 and who now, after the elections he himself called, is forced to give up part of his power.
Electoral advance?
A day before the announcement of the name of the new Prime Minister, one of Michel Barnier’s predecessors in power, Édouard Philippe, had announced his intention to be a candidate for the Elysée during the next presidential elections in 2027, in an interview with the weekly The Point.
The first head of state elected by Macron in 2017 and a parliamentary ally of the president with his Horizontes group, Philippe was very critical of the head of state’s decision to dissolve the Assembly and call elections, believing that the president “had dissolved his own majority.”
Added to this complaint is now the decision to force Elisabeth Borne to resign as Prime Minister in January and replace her with Gabriel Attal, burning the cartridge of a change of government in response to the failure of the European elections. However, the impossibility of calling new legislative elections before a year deprives the president of room for maneuver. “Yes, I had recommended to the President of the Republic to keep Elisabeth Borne. But it was not his decision,” Philippe acknowledged.
Although this announcement did not surprise anyone – Philippe is one of the most popular names for the next presidential elections, along with Marine Le Pen and Jean-Luc Mélenchon – the timing of the announcement, in the midst of political chaos, with the president immersed in a long period of consultations, is interpreted as a way of distancing himself from Macron and, perhaps, positioning himself in the event of early elections.
In the same interview, he raised the possibility that the elections, scheduled for 2027, could be brought forward and that Macron would not be able to complete the legislature or that he would have to bring forward the elections if the political blockade worsens. Thus, Philippe confirmed that he would be ready to run, “even in the event of early presidential elections.”
This is a possibility that Sawicki also raises in his interview.. “By placing the survival of the Government in the hands of the National Group, this gives it the opportunity to paralyze the institutions,” the political scientist analyzes. “Marine Le Pen will be able to overthrow the government at the most opportune moment for her, once she has won a few victories. And since there is no possibility of dissolution before a year, this could create a situation of power blockage for several months, which would lead the political forces to demand the resignation of the President of the Republic.”
