Both South Korea and Japan, the United States’ two main allies in Northeast Asia, are worried about Donald Trump’s unpredictability. He certainly has other priorities, given the two ongoing wars in Europe and the Middle East. But anxiety is no less sensitive in Seoul than in Tokyo over the fate that will be reserved for the 2023 trilateral, security and economic cooperation agreement, between South Korea, the United States and Japan, aimed at confronting Chinese threats and North Koreans.
South Korea is doubly concerned: about a possible attempt by Donald Trump to renew dialogue with North Korea and about his demands to increase the Korean contribution to the stationing of US troops on its territory.
The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK, North Korea’s official name) barely appeared in Donald Trump’s campaign speeches. Since the failure of their bilateral summit in Hanoi in February 2019, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has distrusted the character he accuses of having used “gangster methods”during the interviews. Above all, the DPRK is no longer in the weak situation it once was. Today it is a power with ballistic and nuclear capabilities.
The deployment of North Korean troops on the Ukrainian front, the result of the global strategic agreement signed in June in Pyongyang by Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong-un, which provides for mutual assistance and military cooperation between both countries, modifies the geostrategic positioning of the DPRK. In addition to some 10,000 soldiers, Pyongyang supplies weapons to Russia.
Financial compensation for the American presence
The DPRK will undoubtedly set new conditions for a possible resumption of dialogue with Donald Trump, including the lifting of sanctions, decided by the United Nations Security Council. Measures now weakened by the lack of support from China and Russia.
Fearing being the subject of new requests to increase its financial contribution to the presence of 28,500 soldiers in its territory, Seoul took the initiative by signing an agreement with Washington in October to increase its participation by 8.3%, between 2026 and 2030 (1.3 billion of dollars). , or 1.2 billion euros a year), hoping to avoid the wrath of Donald Trump, who had threatened a withdrawal of US forces, if Seoul did not increase this contribution.
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