Social Security continues to fall due to a very bad slope. In the short term, the budget deficit is not “not sustainable”although Michel Barnier’s government manages to implement the savings measures it announced at the beginning of autumn. This is the message that the Court of Auditors delivered on Wednesday, November 6, in a written “communication” to both houses of Parliament. Coming from an institution that has been sounding the alarm for years, the warning is not surprising, but the tone with which it is formulated seems, this time, especially alarmist.
The details of the problem are known. In 2024, the balance between income and expenses of the “Secu” should be negative: 18,000 million euros, that is, 7,500 million more than initially planned in the financing law approved at the end of 2023. According to the Court of Auditors, such a figure. the deterioration is “Unprecedented scale”leaving aside the deviations that have occurred in the past after economic or health crises.
The difficulties lie in two sectors of our welfare state: health insurance, with a “hole” that will probably reach 14.6 billion euros in 2024, and the old-age sector (–5.5 billion). The other regimes (family, autonomy, work accidents-occupational diseases) are, for their part, slightly in surplus or close to the equilibrium point.
Government forecasts “too optimistic”
The worsening situation is due, in part, to poor resource forecasting. Thus, the fraction of VAT paid to “Secu” turned out to be lower than expected. However, the Higher Council of Public Finances reported in September 2023 that the government’s forecasts were erroneous by their nature. “too optimistic”. Likewise, the wage bill, on which the contributions granted to the social protection system are calculated, has increased at a lower rate than the expectations of those in power. Result: less money in the coffers.
The other factor that explains the drift of the deficit is spending on health insurance, which once again exceeded the objectives in 2024: it should increase by 4%, while the executive was counting on an increase of 3.3%. Such a gap is ” basically “ attributable to the dynamism of community care.
You have 40.25% of this article left to read. The rest is reserved for subscribers.
