lThe return of Donald Trump to the White House ends Joe Biden’s parenthesis and confronts the Europeans with their strategic responsibilities. After an election that gives Republicans ample room for maneuver to implement their program, two questions arise. Can Europeans build a new security model for their continent? And what role do they want to play in the strategic competition between the United States and China?
The re-election of Donald Trump demands that we accelerate a reflection that should have been launched seriously in the 2010s, without alarmism or naivety, Europeans must quickly present political solutions to these two challenges.
Donald Trump sees the Atlantic Alliance as an organization that allows allies to benefit from American protection for their own security at a lower cost. European defense spending will be one of the hot topics of the first transatlantic exchanges.
Instead of giving in to the temptation of bilateral agreements in which each country would seek to “buy” American protection, Europe should consider a coordinated approach by rationalizing its industrial base. This is a top priority, because it can no longer afford to outsource its defense to the United States. The new NATO Secretary General, Mark Rutte, and other European leaders will have to convince Trump that this development can be presented as a political victory in the United States.
First test for the transatlantic relationship
At the same time, the Ukrainian issue will be crucial for the redefinition of the European security space. It will also be the first test for the transatlantic relationship. Donald Trump presented himself to his voters as the one who could prevent World War III. There is no doubt that a deal with Vladimir Putin is a top priority on his foreign policy agenda.
The European response must be threefold: assert itself in the consultations; agree on conditions that should not be sacrificed as part of a ceasefire; and continue to support Ukraine, even in the event of a frozen conflict, to prevent further Russian aggression.
Donald Trump will want to make the future of Ukraine a specifically European issue, so he can focus on the Middle East and the Indo-Pacific. However, the Europeans do not lack economic and diplomatic levers to convince him of the interest of political coordination with them. To do this, we must agree to enter the game of a transactional relationship with Washington and weigh different issues, including the relationship with China.
You have 57.92% of this article left to read. The rest is reserved for subscribers.
