Despite the latest stock market corrections, Mapfre manages, with a little less than two months until the end of the year, its most bullish year since 2013, with a revaluation that exceeds 34%. The insurer has also just closed a month of October in which it revalued by almost 10%, which also represents its best month on the stock market since last March, and was only ahead of Rovi. In fact, before the fall, Mapfre’s price reached levels not seen since 2019.
The company presented profits until September worth 653.5 million euros, or 38.9% more. These are numbers close to those he earned at the end of last year, when the black numbers There were 692 million of them. “Mapfre has published its activity report corresponding to the first nine months of the year, where premiums in the Not life They were 2% lower than estimates and those in the Life branch exceeded forecasts by +3% compared to Renta 4 estimates and the consensus. Net profit amounted to 654 million euros and represents an increase of 39% year-on-year,” Renta 4 analyst Nuria Álvarez said in a report.
The company added that these figures show how the increase in tariffs and the normalization of the accident rate allow it to maintain good operational performance and improve its profitability so far this year. “This development is going in the right direction to meet the objectives of the 2024-2026 period.“, they emphasize.
The trajectory set by central banks in terms of interest rates has strongly influenced Mapfre’s stock performance, since the company has invested a large part of its portfolio in fixed income securities. Thus, in the same way that the rise in interest rates has penalized the company, the current roadmap, which is that of budget cuts, favors the insurer.
Even if the companies that reviewed the valuation of Mapfre after the presentation of the results did not modify the price target, with an average valuation of 2.55 euros, according to the consensus of Bloomberg, On Wednesday of last week, his assessment and advice were somewhat reduced. Alphavalue has modified the recommendation to take a selling position on Mapfre shares and has also made a slight reduction in its valuation: from 2.85 to 2.83 euros. The other companies that have updated their valuations have not made any changes, and JD Capital Markets is the one that gives the greatest room for upside to the insurer’s securities, with a price target of 3.20 euros. Thus, despite the latest corrections, the company is currently trading almost 2% above the consensus price target.
The expert consensus estimates Mapfre’s annual profit at 899.9 million euros in 2024, almost 33% more than that reported in 2023, with 677.2 million, and the company’s highest net profit since 2014. The company’s dividend yield is another of its strong points, with an expected yield for 2024 of almost 7%, which is one of the highest in the Ibex 35. The next payment will take place at the end of November , as analysts predict, with gross cash to distribute of 0.065 euros.
A booming sector
According to Mapfre, the European insurance sector is also among the best performing industries in the Stoxx 600 in 2024, with an increase that exceeds 14%, which doubles the profitability of the Old Continent index, which increases by a little less than 7% as well. far this year.
This increase places the European insurance sector third among the most bullish sectors of the year, behind banks and telecommunications. In addition, We would have to go until 2019 to find a year with more profits for the entire segmenttwo months before the end of 2024. The upside potential estimated by Bloomberg is 8.3% from current levels.
In value terms, Italian Unipol is the leader in the insurance sector, with annual growth of 125%. Next come Beazley and Generali, with 35% and 53%. The score is on the other side of the table, with a correction of 25.4% since January 1.
