NEWSru.co.il continues to publish reviews on the political situation in Israel written by journalist Gabi Wolfson.
Dismissal Yoava Galanta of the position of Minister of Defense was unexpected. Not so much from the point of view of the very fact of the change of the head of the Department of Defense (this was discussed a long time ago and in detail), but from the point of view of the choice of the moment. No one expected that on the same day that a new president was elected in the United States and the heads of the Iranian regime chose the moment to attack Israel, the prime minister would decide to replace Galant with someone else. In retrospect, there may be various explanations, but they all have to do in one way or another with politics, much more than with war.
As Israelis digested the news of a change in defense minister, the United States chose donald trump for the presidency. They say, Benjamin Netanyahu counting the days until Trump takes office. It is not entirely obvious that these expectations will be justified.
Meanwhile, investigations into scandals surrounding and within Netanyahu’s office continue. Although full details of both scandals are prohibited from being published, both supporters and opponents of the government have already drawn conclusions. Some are convinced that this is another attempt to discredit the prime minister, while others are convinced that this is further evidence of Netanyahu’s corruption. This is our tradition: first the position, then the facts.
Galant’s dismissal: thunder amid coalition scandal
The dismissal of Yoav Galant alone does not change anything in the prospects for passing the law on compulsory military service or the famous law on daycare. Galant had one vote in the Knesset and had one vote left in the Knesset. Galant was going to vote against these laws and will do the same in the future. But just as the US election is not just about what is happening in the United States, Galant’s firing does not just affect himself and the Department of Defense.
Galant was fired at a time when Netanyahu was in dire straits. Opposition to laws that exempt the ultra-Orthodox from service or provide them with funding for preschool institutions has snowballed. Deputies of “Zionut Datit” Ohad Tal AND Moshe Solomon They said they would not vote on the bills. Several Likud deputies took a similar position.
The ultra-Orthodox parties, for their part, said they were not very interested in Netanyahu’s problems and threatened to put the bill to a vote, even if there was no majority. Ya’adut HaTorah did not threaten a direct collapse of the coalition, but the cessation of voting in accordance with coalition discipline is enough for the situation to spiral out of control.
Netanyahu realized that, like a chess player, he had to sacrifice a piece to gain operational space. As it turned out, the prime minister not only gained space, but also had more pieces on the board.
Throughout the day on November 5, hectic negotiations took place between representatives of Benjamin Netanyahu. Gideon Saar on the conclusion of a coalition agreement. Sa’ar has been a minister for several weeks, but his party remains outside the coalition. This time, Netanyahu decided to complete the process of incorporating Yamin Mamlakhti into the coalition. Ze’ev Elkin received the position of minister Sharen Askel – Vice Minister Benjamin Netanyahu: four more votes in the coalition and four quite loyal votes in the near future. In this situation, from his point of view, it was possible to fire Galant. Now Galant is no longer a member of the coalition, but the four votes obtained more than cover this loss.
Relations between Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Galant have been downright bad for a year and a half. Netanyahu does not forget public attacks on himself, and Netanyahu perceived what Galant did a year ago at the height of the fight for legal reform as an attack on himself. However, for a year and a half they continued to work together and for more than a year in war conditions. And just when it seemed Netanyahu had cooled on his desire to fire Galant, politics took over. This would be almost routine, at least for Netanyahu, who has not maintained a good relationship with any defense minister he has worked with. When politics takes power in the middle of war, it is evidence of an unhealthy order of priorities.
Galant: forms and opportunities.
A few hours after receiving the resignation letter, Galant issued a statement to the media. He mentioned three issues on which he and Prime Minister Netanyahu disagreed: 1) the bill, 2) an agreement to release the hostages, which, according to Galant, is achievable, meaning – the inevitable conclusion of his words – that there is no fault of Prime Minister Netanyahu, 3) the issue of the creation of a commission of inquiry to investigate the circumstances of the events of October 7, 2023.
After this speech, Galant was left with many questions. For example, if the hostage deal he insisted on was feasible, how could he remain in government and he apparently had no intention of even leaving it? However, this is already the past. Galant said goodbye to the General Staff officers and decided to ignore the Knesset plenary session, where candidates are approved. Israel Katz for the position of Minister of Defense and Gideon Saar for the position of Minister of Foreign Affairs. People around Galant say he intends to take some time away from politics. And here it is very appropriate to remember the phrase that Saar liked to repeat when he was outside the political system. “The property of any timeout is to finish.”
Gallant has too many options in front of him to believe his timeout will be indefinite. Yoav Galant may form an alliance with Naftali Bennetthe can seek a place in the current party, he can return to Likud when what now seems almost impossible happens: and Netanyahu leaves politics. The praise now being lavished on Galanta in the opposition and in the media is too tempting to leave the former Defense Minister indifferent.
The opposition: an invaluable gift from Netanyahu
The opposition was going through difficult days before the thunder of November 5 broke out. Netanyahu had stabilized in the polls, his coalition’s popularity was growing, and it seemed that the opposition could only wait for the coalition to stumble before launching a counterattack. This moment came much sooner than many expected. Galant’s dismissal was precisely the point that provoked a new outbreak of demonstrations. And even the parliamentary opposition woke up from its slumber and its leaders held a joint press conference. However, this time the opponents could not overcome their main problem: division. Not even the leaders of the RAAM party were invited to the press conference, without which, judging by the latest polls, an alternative coalition cannot be created. Understandably, the HADASH-TAAL block was left out of the game.
Parliamentary opponents did not limit themselves to words. In protest of Galant’s dismissal, they announced that they would not vote for any coalition legislation. The first bill that did not receive opposition support in the second and third reading was the bill on the deportation of families of terrorists. An effective move, but not original. The opposition in the previous Knesset, led by Benjamin Netanyahu, boycotted the work of parliament almost from the first day. Then, by the way, the opposition was outraged (and rightly so) by the coalition’s irresponsibility. Today the sides have changed places.
The extra-parliamentary opposition tried to reactivate street protests. Protest demonstrations swept through the streets and cities, but neither in number nor intensity did they come close to what they were in March 2023. And the Histadrut this time remained on the sidelines.
A lawsuit was filed in Superior Court demanding that Galant’s dismissal be frozen, but this lawsuit is so legally baseless that even Gali Baarav-Miara He found no reason to refuse to represent the government and asked the court to reject the appeal. It is unlikely that the opposition hopes to get rid of Netanyahu through a trial in this case.
Investigations and scandals: political aspect
Two investigations are now attracting the attention of law enforcement and the public in Israel. The details of both cases cannot be published and both involve the Prime Minister’s Office and its “periphery.”
In one case, the issue of illegal theft of a top-secret army document and its transfer to an unauthorized person, who in one way or another handed over this document (or documents) to foreign media, is examined. The main suspect Eli FeldsteinAlthough he was never an official employee of Netanyahu’s office, he was always “close to the prime minister.” Of course, at the moment there is no answer to the question of what the head of government knew and what he did not know, but politicians (and not only them) already have an answer. Deputy Moshe Saada (Likud) believes this is a storm in a teacup. And the head of the NDI Avigdor Liberman He stated that “it is impossible to imagine that Netanyahu did not know anything, and if he did not know, then the situation is even worse.”
The second case, the details of which are also prohibited from publicity, is related to the publication of a journalist Nadav Eyalaccording to which suspicions are confirmed that someone in the Head of Government’s office “corrected” the transcripts of top-secret meetings, including meetings of the political-military cabinet.
I would go so far as to suggest that the second scandal contains more “explosives”, as it is about what happened in the holy of holies of the Prime Minister’s office. And here the question that Israelis love to search and not find an answer is left open: “Who gave the order?”
Trump’s victory: what should Israel expect?
Benjamin Netanyahu’s secret dream has come true: Donald Trump has once again won the US presidential election. However, unlike the case Kamala HarrisIn the case of Trump, it is impossible to predict in which direction he will move the ship of American foreign policy. During the election campaign, Trump managed to make many contradictory statements. In Jerusalem they believe that Trump’s election will almost certainly bring us closer to ending the war. There are even those who believe that Netanyahu will end military action before January 20, 2025, as an inaugural gift to Trump.
One of the main tasks that Donald Trump sets for himself in relation to the situation in the Middle East is the expansion of the “Abraham Accords”, mainly towards Saudi Arabia. At the moment, it is difficult to imagine that Saudi Arabia would agree to such a step without Israel’s declarative willingness to move toward a two-state solution to the conflict with the Palestinian Arabs. It is equally difficult to imagine Netanbyahu taking that step after October 7, 2023 and under the current government. But Trump’s victory creates a serious problem for Netanyahu: he will find it very difficult to say “no” to the current US administration. Much more difficult than if Harris were in the White House.
