THE lack of progress in negotiations There has been a growing sense of weariness between the parties since the beginning of the conflict, following the attack by the terrorist group Hamas on southern and central Israel.
Optimism turns into pessimism throughout the region.
The risk of widening the confrontation is fueled by structural factorsdespite the progress made since 2020 with the signing of the Abraham Accords between Arab or Muslim countries and the State of Israel to normalize their bilateral relations.
The countries from the Middle East they are militarizing themselvesTHE religious divisions are becoming increasingly acute, including those affecting Islamism, security dilemmas they grow up and non-state actors They are very active and play a major role in the region.
Over the past few months Israel and Iran and their proxies in the so-called “axis of resistance” – Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen and the Shiite militias in Iraq – They are strengthening their military force and increase its preparedness for war.
Diplomatic efforts are fragile in this situation.
Iran’s calculation East remain ready for a major war against Israeleven if an agreement were reached to end the conflict in Gaza.
The strategic assessment carried out in Tehran is as follows: Israel’s Complete Destruction of Hamas Prevented and that, therefore, this terrorist group won by not being defeated.
Furthermore, Iran is convinced that has created enough power under its leadership in Gaza, Lebanon, Yemen and Iraq that each of these areas There will be multiple confrontations against Israeleven if a regional war did not break out.
In Israel has passed of the initial state of opinion, in October 2023, in favor focus efforts on Gaza and let’s forget Hezbollah At current feeling of take advantage of this to attack this guerrilla in the south of Lebanon.
He pessimism The prevailing view in Israel regarding a possible immediate agreement is based on the belief that Gaza must not return to pre-war status quoIn other words, Hamas is once again in control of the Gaza Strip, something Israel will not allow to prevent this terrorist organization from resurrecting as a military force.
Hamason his side, wants to come backobviously, to the previous situation until October 2023 if possible.
However, Israel discovers that Hezbollah does not want to find itself in the situation before its systematic bombing of northern Israelbefore the Hamas attack, as it would allow more than 150,000 Israelis to return home from among those displaced for security reasons.
Voices in favor of an open confrontation between Israel and Hezbollah are growing with the aim of pushing it back towards northern Lebanon beyond the maximum range of its artillery.
The chances of a full-blown military confrontation between the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and Hezbollah are increasing as the conflict between the two on Israel’s northern border drags on.
Notwithstanding the above, The calculation made by local and regional authorities is contrary to the escalation of the conflict because it would not benefit any of them.
World powers -United States (USA), Russian Federation or China- They are not interested either in a regional war in the Middle East.
The risks of accidents are controlled and limited because the parts in the region they know each other good to each other, have established by violent means the rules of engagement and control of the current situation and the communication between them continueseven indirectly.
The Middle East is facing a confrontation maintenance scenario here as a war of low or medium intensity and prolonged duration.
