THE Chamber of Commerce of Ciudad Real published a detailed report on the recent presidential and legislative elections in the United Statesstressing that an increase in trade barriers and the fragmentation of the global economy could affect key sectors for exports from Castilla-La Mancha and Ciudad Real, particularly in the cheese sector due to its greater dependence on the American market.
Among the main products exported to the United States from Castile-La Mancha, cheese appears to be the most vulnerable product faced with an increase in customs tariffs or other protectionist barriers. The United States is the main destination for Castile-La Mancha cheese exports, and In 2023, 57.5 million euros of cheese were exported to this countryunderlines the Chamber in a press release.
Out of a total of 213 million euros in cheese exports, 40% corresponded to products from Ciudad Real, which also exported 23.4 million euros of milk and dairy products to the United States.
The report from the Chamber of Commerce of Ciudad Real indicates that in 2023 the United States was the eighth largest export market for goods from Castile-La Mancha, reaching a value of 319 million euros, which represents 3, 2% of total regional exports.
At the provincial level, The United States was the seventh destination, with exports valued at 94 million euros, which represents 4% of Ciudad Real’s exports.
In an analysis of the region’s exports during Donald Trump’s first term (2017-2020), we see that this period did not have a negative impact on Castile-La Mancha’s exports to the United States.
On the contrary, the report indicates a general surge in exports, particularly in the industrial and technological sectors, with a few exceptions in plastic and aluminum products.
At the provincial level, exports of industrial and technological products to the United States have increased significantly under the Trump administration.
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In the wine sectorthe United States was the eighth market of Castilla-La Mancha in 2023with exports worth 17 million euros.
Ciudad Real, leader in wine exports in the regionrepresentative 56% of total wine exports from Castile-La Manchawith 415 million euros in 2023.
Ciudad Real exported drinks of all types (except juice) to the United States with a value of 15.5 million euros in 2023.
Tensions and protectionism
In this analysis, the Chamber examines how the virtual triumph of Donald Trump and the application of the announced policies could affect both the global economy and the key export sectors of Castilla-La Mancha and Ciudad Real, “in a context of trade tensions and economic protectionism”. policies.
The report indicates that November 5Americans not only elected their president, but also renewed the chambers of Congress and the Senate, which have historically constituted a political counterweight to presidential power.
“A battery of protectionist and expansive trade measures More restrictive fiscal and immigration policies would likely increase inflation in the country. AND Higher prices could lead the Federal Reserve to have to raise interest rates in 2025, which would not be good for global economic growth,” the Chamber said.
As this chamber describes it, the United States economy has experienced a significant recovery from the COVID-19 crisis, “with solid levels of economic growth and employment.”
Innovation and productivity remain the strengths of the American economy, which has managed to stabilize in the face of the inflationary shock.
However, the report warns of several significant fiscal imbalances, such as the deficit in public accounts and external accounts, in addition to certain fragilities in the financial system.
These factors could have negative effects on both the U.S. and global economies.
The economic platforms of both major parties (Republican and Democratic) propose policies that would involve maintaining high public deficits and increasing levels of public debt.
Commercial policy
Regarding commercial policy, the Chamber of Commerce of Ciudad Real emphasizes that a protectionist approach is predictable in the United States to strengthen national security and support local industry.
“President Trump has expressed his intention to impose a universal tariff on all products: 60% for those coming from China (or even higher for certain products, such as electric vehicles), 20% for the rest of the world and 100% for countries who reject the use of the dollar in international trade. »
Trump’s strategy is reminiscent of his first term, during which he used trade barriers as a negotiating tool to obtain concessions from his trading partners in return.
In the area of multilateral trade, the report emphasizes that this American protectionist policy deviates from the free trade model promoted by the European Union.
The Ciudad Real Chamber of Commerce warns that worsening trade tensions could harm the EU.
However, open conflict between China and the United States could benefit some European countries if international trade is diverted to other routes.
