doconcerned about CO emissions trajectories2Some people have already experienced a “Oh shit!” moment.” This expression, conceptualized by the Australian philosopher Clive Hamilton, describes quite abruptly the moment when everything seems useless and insignificant in the face of inevitable global warming. A kind of crystallization of fear. Reading a study published in the journal Science August 22 will not cure the anxieties of the most desperate.
Scientists at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Change Impact Research used data from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development to analyse the effects of 1,500 climate policies implemented in 41 countries between 1998 and 2022. Using an artificial intelligence machine, they estimated their impact on reducing CO emissions.2.
The result is worrying. In detail, they identified only 63 effective measures that resulted in emissions reductions of at least between 4.5% and 13% in different sectors. Most of the improvements occurred in construction (24 cases), followed by transport (19 cases), industry (16 cases) and electricity (10 cases).
Restriction and incentive
Sixty-three out of 1,500? “Oh shit…”we might be tempted to answer. And yet, amidst the very grim graphs, this work contains keys to improving public policies. 70% of the useful measures were so when combined with one or more other initiatives. In 2013, in China, the establishment of an emissions trading system in industry had little effect. But in 2016, emissions fell clearly when this system was added to a strengthening of the financing mechanisms for investments linked to energy efficiency and then a reduction in subsidies for fossil fuels.
In the UK, the shift in electricity sector emissions in 2015 and 2016 was driven by the introduction in mid-2013 of a carbon price floor, which imposed a minimum price on British electricity producers. This measure strengthened the European Union’s emissions trading system.
“For transport, 94% of significant reductions in CO emissions2 are associated with a combination of policies »The authors write, citing one exception to this rule: price fixing alone is effective in sectors dominated by high-profit firms, such as certain industries or large energy producers. On the other hand, they noted, “the greatest potential for complementarity between policy instruments for the construction and transport sectors, which include a significant proportion of private consumers subject to documented behavioural factors”.
You have 51.52% of this article left to read. The rest is reserved for subscribers.
