The recent avalanche of soy export, which contributed to the end of a temporary reduction in deductions, brought a record income of 37 billion US dollars in June, which will be increased in July, but from August the figures will marry the critical red for the accumulation of reserves and the official collection.
The Mini Dollar Soja strategy caused a change in export dynamics, including as a requirement that sales are settled up to 15 days from the date of registration, so the flow will continue in July.
According to Lorenzo Sigout, Graiga, a balancing economist, a jump in the affidate of foreign sales (DJVE) in June “freezes low alikvot” amounted to $ 8,150 million, which explains that in the first weeks of July $ 47 billion will be resolved.
On the other hand, the sales advance product, from August to November, entrance to dollars of agriculture “will become strong” for an accurate crop below 2000 million US dollars per month, when you need it the most, ”the analyst said in relation to the previous choice. “In free flotation, it makes no sense to aggravate seasonality,” he added.
DJVE jumped on June 25 ($ 8150 million) to freeze low aliquot -15 business days, with deductions against Agrodivisas X 3700 m of the US dollars, awaits the liquidation record in July 25. This will reach 4700 million dollars. USA, but then it will be strong (AG-NOV) to get an exact crop! pic.twitter.com/x8LQX23L7
– lorenzosigautgravina (@lsigoutgravina) July 2, 2025
“The logic of the soy dollar was to make a box (for $ and $) and manage the expected resources in the next month,” he explained and warned that “now the most difficult months of the year were more devoid of currency.”
While July is aimed at recording with an income of 1300 million dollars. The United States is higher than the historical average for this month, in the future, the numbers become red with monthly victims of $ 800 million. USA, $ 650 million. USA, $ 630 million. USA, 190 million dollars. USA 90 million dollars. USA.
At the same time, this effect will be felt in the collection of an agency for the collection and control of customs (ARCA), through export rights, the key to maintaining a financial excess. In June, in June, in comparison with an 87% jump in annual currencies, agriculture introduced within 1.21 billion dollars. The USA, duplicating in real terms as a result of June 2024.
The spill effect
According to the Rosario Stock Exchange (BCR), the contribution of agriculture in the field of foreign currency in the market of changes in 2025 will be $ 32,070 million. USA, which is just above 2024.
Although international prices for the main export products were lower, the largest harvest helped to compensate.
Until June, the agribusiness entered 18,100 million US dollars, 56% of the predicted total amount, which exceeds the average value of the first semesters over the past 15 years.
However, “it is predicted that the monthly contribution of the agro recovery has passed significantly,” BCR agreed with various private analysts and noted that most of the currencies have already advanced in accordance with the temporary reduction scheme for export rights.
Thus, the next jump in the entrance to agriculture is expected from the next small harvest (wheat, barley), by the end of November and December.
Accessibility
In early July, 2025, sales in the domestic market amount to 25.2 million tons (MT) of Soy; 21.3 million tons of corn and 14.4 million wheat soybeans, according to the Rosario organization.
In the case of soybeans, it is available for the sale of the remaining of 22 million tons, or 42% of the total offer, which is about 6019 million dollars. USA, plus others $ 1644 million. The United States, which correspond to the grains already sold, to which it still remains to establish a large price.
Having added three main grains, the number is 14,903 million US dollars until the commercial campaign closes, which will be held in the case of wheat in November, and corn is extended until February 2026 and soy until March next year.
The availability of more than 26 million tons of fresh soybean beans will be the goal of tension between the government and manufacturers, which are not in a hurry to sell today.
“We reached almost 40% of sales at production prices, and we went to the usual rhythm during this time of year (35%),” said Dante Romano, professor and researcher at the Australian University of Agribusiness Center and compared with the effect of the export increase used by the previous government.
From the pressure of sales, in the previous increase in retention, the price decreased from 280/275 to 270, and from July 1 it is between 260/265. “Sellers expected that enterprises and buyers who gathered a large purchased share have no urgency to pay higher prices,” Romano described.
According to the expert, out of the low interest in the market, the affordable price is likely to stabilize closer to 270, and that the delayed also converges at this level.
According to the agribusiness monitor in the oil industry chamber (CIARA – CEC), 63% of 24/25 of the Soye crop for volume, estimated at 31,488 million tons, are invaluable and awaited by manufacturers. Meanwhile, from the previous 23/24 crop, there are 17 % without sales (8.4 tons).
