The volatility in the exchange rate reached a jump in the last days in relation to low levels observed in June. Analysts emphasize the existence of seasonal factors that affect this dynamics. However, they also indicate risks in the coming weeks. The dollarization of portfolios is an option, although they also see the value in the positioning of Peso. What assets do analysts recommend?
More volatility
The exchange rate worked on Thursday, with a slight drop by 0.8%, although on Friday it grew up again. In the accumulation of the month, Mep Dollar increased by 1.5% and shows an advance by 5% this year. For its part, CCL earns 2% in July and reaches 4% within a year.
This month, the officer finally registered a jump by 2.8%. With the help of this exchange rate, the volatility of the exchange has increased. Over the past 5 days, it has reached about 5% in financial dollars and, with a recent increase in the price of an officer, reached 20% in CCL and 10% in the official dollar, according to the SBS Group research group.
Lysandro Meroi, a TSA stock market analyst, believes that exchange volatility occurs from the existence of the second semester with an unfavorable seasonality for the elimination of dollars, transformation in a monetary scheme with the elimination of the Lophism and October elections.
As Meroy explained, this has a very short -term effect on the dynamics of bets and exchange rate, which makes it difficult to choose between Peso or positions in solid currency.
Nevertheless, he hopes that the field will be able to increase its liquidation in the last section of the thick harvest and, together with it, calm the exchange rate and maintain investments in the local currency.
“The final elimination of agriculture in the coming weeks can help restrain a certain pressure on the exchange rate, preferring the names in Peso,” he said.
From at least the end of April to date, the exchange rate records an increase of 9%. In any case, even with the current jump in the dollar, it remains in the middle part of the groups created by the government in the new exchange and monetary scheme implemented after the production of management elements.
Isabelle Botta, a product manager in a balance sheet, explained that the growth of the exchange rate in recent days is included in the seasonal behavior, which we noted for a long time.
“Despite these movements, we continue to take into account that they react to seasonal volatility, and not to a change in the trend. There is a context with a lower elimination of agriculture, a greater demand associated with the dollarization of the bonus, and some expectations regarding possible casualties in Peso, which can cause a disorder in local currency, ”he said.
As for the variables that can affect the trend in the exchange rate, Botta indicated that the electoral calendar and the dynamics of demand in Mecon tenders are closely followed, especially with regard to the preference of a fixed rate and selected deadlines, since this can clearly marry what the market awaits.
Peso is weakened against the dollar
Last month, Argentine peso was one of the worst coins around the world around the world.
The dollar in Argentina has grown by 3.3% over the past 30 days, while the dollar around the world fell 1.7%.
Uruguayan Peso was estimated at 3.6%, Colombian peso was estimated at 3.3%, and the royal Brazilian was strengthened by 3.2%.
In Mexico, the dollar is less than 2.9%, while in Peru it fell 1.7%.
At the international level, the Swiss Franco was reinforced by 2.8%, pounds sterling won 0.7%, and the euro grew by 2.9%.
That is, the dollar weakens all the coins. However, for the local case, weight, lost relative value.
Max Capital analysts warn that, despite the strong export flows near 4000 million in July, they were not enough to restrain the pressure on the complex second semester of 2025.
“Official data show that registered sales have increased more than doubled in June, which increased to the increase in deductions. Although agricultural sales remained above 200 million US dollars per day, the currency was pressed, in accordance with a decrease in fees, the result of a wide liquidity obtained as a result of a change in monetary purposes after a wide auction. ”
Agro Liquidation effectively occurs high in recent days.
PPI analysts indicated that on Tuesday, Agro eliminated 517 million US dollars, which is the largest amount from May 31, 2023 ($ 792 million) during one of the release programs implemented by former minister Sergio Mass.
“On Wednesday this week, 1167 million US dollars are held, more than two times than $ 522 million. USA, registered in the previous three days. We evaluate that they will miss about 3550 million US dollars, given that DJVE is estimated at 6950 million US dollars, and the liquidation amounted to 3396 million US dollars, ”they are described in detail in detail.
Despite this high liquidation, the exchange rate continues to work with high volatility.
With an increase in the exchange rate, from Max Capital, they warn that there is a combination of factors.
“The highest payment rates suggest that exporters cover their sales in dollars, and volumes suggest that individual portfolios and flows are ready to confirm a higher exchange rate under the perception of the fact that the tactical range is from 1100 to $ 1,200, until recently, preferring intervention to the future of BCRA,” they explained.
In this line, they warn that “the combination of the lack of BCRA in the futures market, the lowest rates and the second complex semester in terms of flows have probably changed the perception of the average investor”
In this context, they recommend caution with the positioning of Peso.
Is it dollarizing yes or not?
Given the current scenario of the volatility of the exchange, investments in Peso suffered.
In order for the investment in Peso to be successful, the exchange rate must grow during the period of exposure to local foreign exchange assets, which is less than this asset.
Since Lecap performs less than 3% monthly, with an increase of 3%, the effects of this kind of assets will ultimately become a loser in dollars, that is, the transfer of transfer has a tendency to be negative.
In this sense, and, given the beginning of the electoral calendar, analysts begin to see attractive wallets, especially for those conservative investors.
Auxtina Makera, a commercial manager of Sailing Inversiones, agrees that a recent increase in the volatility of the exchange again opens the debate about the convenience of dollarization portfolios.
“In the scenario, when the tension remains in the equipment market and at the end of approaches to income from agricultural currency, many investors are looking for asylum in instruments associated with the dollar,” he explained.
In this line and for conservative profiles, from sailing investments, they see opportunities in dollars through contractual obligations (ONS) of solid companies such as Telecom, YPF, VISTA.
“We believe that this can be a prudent strategy, since they allow you to exchange the exchange coating without a complete resignation, which is highly valued in the context of the greater uncertainty of the macros, such as the current one,” said Mastyra.
Finally, for those most aggressive investors, Machiira indicated that attractive opportunities are still observed in instruments with a fixed rate in Peso.
“Given the effective monthly rates (TEM) in the average section, about 2.5%, there is a place to capture a positive real profit if the deflation process remains,” he said.
As for investments, and for the most conservative profiles, Botta understands that dollarization is not a bad decision if such a dollar implies a generating value.
“This is not just a“ transition to dollars ”, but to do it with the help of tools that allow you to obtain performance in this currency, such as obligations or profitability.
As for specific documents, ONS, which prefer, are names with New York’s legislation up to 7-8 years with a profitability above 8% in dollars, such as Pluspetrol 2032 (PLC4O), IRSA 2035 (IRCPO), View 2033 (VSCVO).
In the world of Cedears from Balanz, they recommend their “quantum choice” package, which presents a strategy developed in accordance with strict quantitative criteria for creating an optimal portfolio based mainly at risk and return.
Finally, Meroy understands that for more conservative profiles they will see with good eyes included in their dollarized active portfolios.
“The result of investment in Peso will depend not only on the dynamics of the exchange rate, but also on the efficiency of dollars that have potential for evaluating a good electoral result of the ruling side, and may be an alternative to investment overcome in certain scenarios,” he said.
Investments in Peso
The exchange rate is torn even with investments in Peso, supported inside the stripes.
Consequently, given that BCRA will intervene in the dollar only if it exceeds the strip, it is expected that Peso positioning will retain certain attractiveness in the portfolios of investors.
The fixed rate in Peso works with indicators from 30% to 27% in a short area and from 31% to 36% (TNA) in the longest sections.
On the other hand, Boncap and double ties also work with a profitability of 30 to 36% (TNA).
Within the framework of the universe of bonds in Peso, bonds are controlled with real interest rates of two digits in all sections.
They make up from 11% to 12.9% in different sections.
Pablo Lazzati, General Director of Insider Finance, believes that it is not the time to dollarize the portfolios, depending on what kind of volatility is.
“Next week and the next, they will enter the U4S $ 41 billion payments to Bonars and Global. And in the last half of the year, everything that was in bank accounts with laundering made last year, spent last year, will enter the market, ”he said.
To this, Latsati adds to him that in July it will also be a high month in the calculation of the crop, since the liquidation was postponed on the rains of May and will be provided in July.
“Despite all this set of events, we see that the market will have a good supply of dollars, regardless of how much it is required at the moment. We do not see that they are 100% dollars of dollars, although we support that it supports part of the portfolio in local currency, and another percentage of dollars are the best for intense contexts, such as current ones, ”he said.
