When the Israeli government talks about Iran’s foreign action, it likes to use the metaphor of the octopus. According to this scheme, the groups linked to the Islamic Republic which operate in the name of the Axis of Resistance – Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis of Yemen – would be the “tentacles” of a larger organism. The head, firm and immobile, would articulate its extensions from its apartments in Tehran.
The image is easy to see. However, it ignores the myriad groups that serve the country of the ayatollahs and that, in reality, make the octopus have an infinite number of feet.
This Friday, the United States’ accusation against an Iranian and two American collaborators who allegedly planned to assassinate the president-elect was made public. Donald Trumpas well as several Persian dissidents, at the request of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards. The order, which would have been issued on October 7, was intended in particular to kill the Republican candidate before the presidential elections which were held this Tuesday. According to the Pentagon, this Iranian colluded with the two Americans from New York to carry out the plot.
Before Friday’s news broke, the U.S. Department of Justice was already preparing criminal charges related to an Iranian cyberattack on Trump’s presidential campaign that was intercepted by the FBI. The strategy would have included hacks and covert social media campaigns designed to shift public opinion. Iranian interference in American politics has posed a real threat since the March 2021 elections, four months after the plebiscite that awarded the presidency. Joe BidenThe National Intelligence Council released a report claiming that Russia and Iran carried out operations to influence the results.
As this year’s elections approach, the country’s deputy attorney general, Matthew Olsensaid Iran was making “greater efforts to influence this year’s elections than in previous election cycles and that Iranian activity was becoming increasingly aggressive as the elections approach.”
It’s raining in the rain
According to a study published in September by the Washington PostThe Islamic Republic subcontracts criminal networks to attack its targets in Europe and the United States, including exiled Iranian dissidents, journalists, and feminist and LGBT rights activists. Tehran’s hitmen are sometimes Iranian, but in many other cases – such as the alleged Donald Trump assassination plot – they are citizens of the country where the attack is allegedly carried out.
An example of this modus operandi is that of the attacks against Iran International, a satellite news channel based in London, followed by millions of Iranians inside and outside the Islamic Republic, although it is banned by the government. Last spring, its presenter, Pouria Zéraatiwas stabbed outside her London home.
In this episode, none of Zeraati’s attackers were Iranian, not even Lebanese, Syrian or Yemeni: they were all European. He Washington Post Identify a trend here. From South America to Scandinavia, there are several groups of different natures which have in common that they are ready to be Tehran’s henchmen abroad. The network is made up of vory From the Russians to the Hells Angels, a California motorcycle gang associated with criminal activity for 75 years. Spain is one of ten Western countries where Iranian “hit men” are present, behind the United Kingdom, the United States, the Netherlands, France and Germany.
At a time when attacks outside Iran are no longer carried out by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), but by a plethora of actors coordinated with the Ministry of Intelligence, containment efforts become incomprehensible in the West. According to the American newspaper, the hiring of local criminals constitutes a real obstacle to the protection of Iranians who find political refuge in the United States, Canada and Europe. “Security services, previously focused on tracking down agents of the Russian spy agency GRU or the IRGC, are now confronted with plots transmitted – often via encrypted channels – to criminal networks deeply rooted in the Western society,” underlines the survey.
The Vidal-Quadras affair
In Spain, this phenomenon has been noticeable for less than two years. The most recent of the plots was the attempted assassination of Alejo Vidal-Quadras at the door of his house in the Salamanca district in November last year. This far-right politician, linked to the Iranian opposition group Mujahedin-e Khalq, was one of the first European politicians to be added to Tehran’s blacklist. After the attack, authorities arrested two Spaniards, a Dutch woman and Mehrez Ayari, a Frenchman of Tunisian origin. Released, Ayari did it again and attempted to assassinate an Iranian dissident near Amsterdam last June.
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy reports another attack prior to that of Vidal-Quadras. In February 2023, an Iranian activist living in Spain received a threatening anonymous message on Telegram: “We will look for you in Madrid and we will kill you. Just like the rest of your friends were arrested and executed in Iran, you will also be punished. » The victim, named Farzane, asked the media to maintain her anonymity and limit their coverage.
According to the Washington Postother countries began to imitate the Iranian strategy. Last fall, Indian security services turned to criminal groups to kill a Sikh activist in Canada. Russia, which traditionally relies on its own agents to carry out deadly operations, has also adopted the modus operandi Iranian. Last February, Moscow turned to “mafia members in Spain” to kill a military helicopter pilot who had defected to Ukraine and then resettled in Villajoyosa.
