Rustam Karakhanli writes…
President Ilham Aliyev’s response to the question about Azerbaijan’s possible mediation in Russia-Ukraine relations during his speech at the International Chernobyl Forum in Italy is perhaps the most important development of the past week in the field of war. In the history of the bloody conflict, which has been going on for more than two years, there has never been a more fertile time for mediation and positive expectations than now. It is true that there have been attempts. However, mediation should be based on relevant factors such as tools and reputation. Azerbaijan’s classification as a “middle power” in the world, which won the Second Karabakh War, is another advantage in addition to the above-mentioned factors.
Why now?
It is no coincidence that this issue is not highlighted in the Western or Ukrainian media, and there are good reasons. Any attempt at mediation runs counter to the agenda of warmongers on the other side of the ocean and in Europe. Even the uncertainty about the outcome of the upcoming presidential election in the United States and the fact that the collective West is increasing the amount of weapons transferred to Ukraine against the background of the vague political future of French leader Macron are a clear indication of this reality. If Trump comes to power in the United States, there will be a U-turn in the current course of the war, and this change will immediately manifest itself in the position of Europe. Therefore, Sahinler’s haste is unknown.
Both Russia and Ukraine are tired of war. The exhausted parties need the cessation of the phase of active hostilities such as air and water. Now the main problem is to save face and keep the guns silent. The possible development of events in this scenario is in the interest of Ukraine, whose infrastructure and human potential have been severely damaged and which, as a state and nation, faces real existential threats. We often criticize official Kiev for pursuing a wrong policy and being at the mercy of the geopolitical whims of the West. In fact, it is no secret that the leadership of Ukraine also understands this reality. From this point of view, it may be more promising if kyiv stops the brutal and endless military conflict with Moscow and moves towards a peace agenda, contrary to Western pressure. Today, despite Western pressure, Georgia does not open a second front against Russia, softens relations with Moscow and tries to return its breakaway regions to its legal space. Moscow’s suspension of financial support to the Abkhaz regime can be considered the first success in this direction.
On the other hand, the end of the war and its transfer to the level of diplomacy will open a window for Russia to free itself from sanctions and economic difficulties. In fact, there is a ray of light for negotiations – the Minsk format. Because Moscow sees the reason for the start of the war precisely in the violation by kyiv and the West of the process taking place in the format of the Minsk negotiations.
Random question or pulse check?
Why the forum moderator asked the Azerbaijani leader this question is no less interesting than the topic itself. Is this not an indication that Western public opinion is serious about Azerbaijan’s possible role in de-escalating the conflict, which could almost lead to a new world war? Could it be related to this reality that the West and the Ukrainian media, influenced by it, are not particularly interested in the topic? The sound of this question on the forum shows that:
– Western public opinion sees Azerbaijan’s potential to penetrate the political authorities of Russia and Ukraine in order to stop the war. It is very important in this context that President Ilham Aliyev maintains trust-based business relations with the leaders of both states;
– Western circles are aware of some of the processes taking place at the level of Russia and Ukraine with the participation of Azerbaijan. Otherwise, the moderator of a reputable forum would clearly not have asked such a question just for the sake of asking. By the way, is there any reason to approach the visit of Patrick Pryor, a representative of the US Defense Intelligence Department, to Baku, from this perspective?
Azerbaijan’s mediation potential
Any mediation implies a certain advantage and authority of the one who implements it over the parties to the conflict. A mediator is a power-bearer, for example, as the Minsk Group co-chairs have been accepted in this status by Azerbaijan and Armenia over the years. Or he has a reputation that inspires confidence. Today, the President of Azerbaijan is recognized not only in the context of the aforementioned war, but also in the status of a statesman with the power and respect to penetrate events in a wider geography that exceeds the boundaries of our region. President Ilham Aliyev’s business contacts with both Putin and Zelensky are very important in this context.
At the same time, Azerbaijan has a broad economic agenda with the parties. Historically, economics has been the cure for many political ills. The issue of gas transportation, which became relevant after Putin’s visit to Baku, remains relevant. In the specific and laconic answer of the President of Azerbaijan to the above-mentioned question, each of these points was touched upon and at the same time a kind of “red lines” of the parties were taken into account:
– Territorial integrity of Ukraine: “In theory, this (mediation-author) is possible. Because, together with Russia and Ukraine, we were part of the Soviet Union for 70 years. Today we have very good relations with Russia and Ukraine. We are territories of all countries, including Ukraine, we firmly support its integrity and sovereignty”;
– Sanctions against Russia“We have not joined the campaign of sanctions against Russia and we have no such intention. We can play a role in the context of existing pragmatic relations. We have never been the initiators of this, because there are enough people who want to be closely involved in this work, but if it is necessary for us to participate, we are ready for it.”
– The gas factor in mediation:”We have been contacted by Russian, Ukrainian and European institutions regarding the continuation of gas transit through the territory of Ukraine. For several months we have been making great efforts to find a common denominator. It is known that if this transit stops, a number of EU countries will restrict the physical supply of natural gas and will face serious difficulties in terms of its availability. We only want to support these countries and Ukraine. If gas transit stops, the gas distribution system in Ukraine will be completely paralyzed.
– The basis for stopping the war and the role of Azerbaijan“We are in contact with both countries and we see that there is a basis for serious progress. If we can achieve success here, I believe we will be able to take further steps to end this war that has devastated the entire region.”
