Influence Global tariff war declared US President Donald Trump, “much worse” than the 2008 financial crisis, and may be equated to Great Depression of 1929The Executive Secretary of the Economic Commission of Latin America and the Caribbean warned on Tuesday (Eclac), Jose Manuel Salazar-Skirinakhi.
“This is the most negative scenario not only from the moment of the 2008 financial crisis – the scenario today is much worse than then – but for many more decades, possibly from the great depression,” said the economist Costa -Rikan on the same day when the agency announced four ten -year reduction of up to 2% in his regional forecasts for this year.
2008 crisis, He added, mostly affected North Atlantic And at that time, “China was still growing at rates of about 9% and 10%, and as a result of recovery Latin America It was a V -shaped and very fast, mainly for paper. “
Today, however, the trade war has caused important reductions in the growth forecasts of two main partners Latin America, United States and China.
He International Monetary Fund (IMF), For example, this reduced the growth rating for the United States from 2.7% to 1.8% and for China from 4.6% to 4%.
“The region is faced with a very difficult international scenario and great uncertainty,” said Salazar-Skirinachs.
Caribbean basin, Central America and Mexico, the most affected
Review of this Tuesday is the first Explax Since the US President Donald Trump started a commercial war, and since April 2 announced calls “Mutual tariffs” 10% to most commercial partners, including Latin America.
“The region closed in 2024 with a growth of 2.3%, that is, that three tenths are expected below this year. We can say that this is not so much, but on average in 33 countries, three tenths are sufficient, ”the executive secretary said.
Salazar-Kixirinachi However, he indicated that the true volume of commercial warfare would be seen in July, when the 90 -day commercial pause represented by Trump European Union and Asia.
The economist said that “this pause is an opportunity to put things a little in the future” and was convinced that “The initial announcement will ultimately become much worse than happening.”
“The effects caused by the originally declared measures were so strong even in the United States that I think that the Trump administration is already some review,” he said.
For subregions, the greatest reduction provided by ECLAC for Caribbean pool (2.6% of estimates in December 1.8%) and for Central America And Mexico (from 1.7% to 1%) for their proximity and dependence with USA, while reviewing South America This is only one tenth (from 2.6% to 2.5%).
Of the 33 countries in the region, only Argentina, Peru and Ecuador Records of records, while countries with the highest reduction in growth forecasts Venezuela, Mexico and Haiti.
Eclac: The problem of regional integration
Executive Secretary Explax He remembered that the region was mired Low ability to grow “ And that the period of 2014-2024 was a “lost decade”, in which there was an average regional growth by only 0.9%.
To avoid a new “lost decade” and minimize the consequences of tariff warfare, The economist asked Latin American governments to “promote productive development policy with much greater ambitions” and, finally, advance in regional commercial integration.
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Despite the various regional unions that exist in Latin America, for example Mercosur or Pacific AllianceHe recalls, interregional trade is only 15% of foreign trade in Latin American.
This figure is less than half of the level of this type of exchange in Eastern Europe and Central Asia, and a third of exchanges between countries East Asia.
“Unfortunately, regional integration is very present in the statements of the head of state and others, but in practice it was not advanced as much as possible,” he complained.
ECLAC: Donald Trump’s tariff war is “much worse” than the 2008 financial crisis.
Look at the interview @JOSMSALAZARXExecutive Secretary #CepalWith @Efenoticias 👇 https://t.co/qwfytguu– Eclac (@Cepal_onu) April 29, 2025
With information EFE.
