Kamala Harris has enjoyed an advantage in the polls so far, a month and a half since she became the Democratic Party’s nominee after Joe Biden’s agonizing withdrawal. The latest New York Times poll, and the first major one after the party’s convention, places vice president behind Trump and anticipates some distrust from independent voters due to the lack of specificity of their political program.
The study, prepared by the University of Siena (Siena College) in the days preceding the debate, places Trump with a one-point lead (48%) in voting intention compared to Harris (47%), a minimum distance which nevertheless remains within the margin of error of the study, 2.8 points.
The investigation established a pitcher of cold water among the Democratswhich was enjoying an upward trend in the polls and had closed its convention with the aim of conveying to the media an appearance of enthusiasm about its candidate’s prospects.
Likewise, it also highlights How close is the race in the swing states? where these elections are actually played out, since under the American system, the candidate who obtains the most state delegates in the Electoral College (per single district) wins, not the one who gathers the most votes nationwide.
In Arizona, North Carolina, Arizona and Nevadaboth candidates appear tied with 48% voting intention. In Pennsylvania, a decisive state for the victory of both parties because of its large population, Harris has a slight advantage of 49% to 48% for Trump. All results are also within the margin of error.
After a few weeks without polls that changed the state of the campaign, the survey also significantly changed the electoral landscape through the size of its sample and its timeliness: more than 1,600 interviews with registered voters conducted between September 3 and 6.
“He is one of the most qualified pollsters, so he has a significant influence on the polling average, reducing Harris’ lead in our national polling average to 2.5 points, which would put her in dangerous territory in the Electoral College,” anticipates in his analysis statistician Nate Silver, one of the leaders in the United States in this field.
A few hours before the electoral debate, the cumulative polls “538” now place Harris with 47.2% of the vote Already Trump with 44.4% of media supports.
This reduction in advantage was also influenced by another survey from the Harvard Center for Policy Studies, which found a technical equality of 50% between the two candidates for the White House.
Similarly, a series of surveys conducted by YouGov (the Economist magazine’s leading pollster) show a tie in Pennsylvania and Harris leading by one point in Michigan and two in Wisconsin, two states the Democrat must win to secure a victory.
Kamala Harris at a campaign event in Pennsylvania last week.
Distrust of Kamala
One reason Harris appears to have chickened out, according to the New York Times study: its lack of concreteness on political issues that matter to Americans as immigration, health or the economy.
28% of registered voters said they needed to know more about Harris while only 9% felt the same about Trump, who is running for his third election and was president of the United States from 2017 to 2021. That is, among voters the saying “the bad known is better than the good unknown” would apply.
Similarly, the survey estimates that 5% of undecided voters have no preference for any candidate.
Until now, Harris has enjoyed a relatively comfortable position within the American electoral machine. Her selection as the new candidate after Biden’s distressing withdrawal propelled her in the polls and her campaign team preferred to enhance Harris’ personal brand and put aside her ideological positions.
However, the American press is beginning to demand that Harris abandon marketing and go into politics. It is also being His absence in the media has been widely criticizedsince he has only given one delayed interview to CNN in which he gave practically no news and from which came a title in which he defended himself from his constant changes of opinion on issues such as “fracking” (before wanting to ban it, now sees it as feasible) by affirming that his “values remain the same.”
Trump’s Ceiling
On the other hand, even though Trump appears strong in the polls and was able to hold his own against the Democrats after their successful convention, the Republican Party does not exceed 50% voting intention in any survey and victory is not guaranteed in the swing states that provide the most delegates to the Electoral College.
Donald Trump, in an interview with Fox in Pennsylvania.
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In this sense, the newspaper Axios recalls that Trump’s electoral base has a clear ceiling: he did not exceed 47% of the votes in the 2016 and 2020 elections, while His 2016 victory was due to a series of victories in decisive states by a very narrow margin compared to Hillary Clinton, who received the most votes nationwide.
And in the current election campaign, there is no indication that the Republican is attracting more voters, even after the support of Robert F. Kennedy Jr.., who, as an independent candidate, received between 5 and 10% in the polls.
Similarly, it is worth remembering that since 2000, the political landscape of the United States has been very stable and divided. Proof of this is the current composition of Congress: in the Senate, Democrats have 51 senators against 49 Republicans. And in the House of Representatives, the Republican majority is due to a dozen constituencies among the more than 400 seats distributed in each election.
So while the televised debate will help shape support somewhat, the race will be tight to the end, with 5 percent of undecided voters holding the key to the White House.
