In 1906, a large earthquake of magnitude 7.9 shook the city of San Francisco and killed more than 10,000 people (an estimate since there is no official data). Episode similar to that of the year 1994, when a 6.4 magnitude earthquake hit the city of Los Angeles, where 59 people died and caused damage worth $25.7 billion between collapsed residential buildings, highways, bridges, commercial areas, public buildings…
The geographical location of this region of the western United States makes California a permanent object of seismic alerts due to the Great Continental Fault, San Andreas, which stretches 1,200 km across the state. Orography which establishes the tectonic boundary between two plates: the North American plate and the Pacific plate. Its activity is constant to such an extent that seismologists have already warned about the probability of a “mega-earthquake” or, as it is called, the “Big One” occurring.
The San Andreas Fault is one of the most dangerous tectonic zones in the world and if a large earthquake were to occur, the consequences would be devastating. Even though, throughout history, there have been seismic moments of high activity, What we expect from the “Big One” is something much bigger. Even the United States Geological Survey was able to estimate the exact date of the phenomenon, in an effort to save as many lives as possible and minimize economic damage.
However, the population of Los Angeles and San Francisco, accustomed to small seismic movements, is prepared for the warnings of the Federal Emergency Management Agency, which recommends that each resident prepare a emergency kit permanent with non-perishable food, water, clothing, documents such as a passport, a flashlight and some basic survival items.
The Hayward and Newport-Inglewood faults very close together
These are estimates, but according to geologists, seismologists and subject matter experts, it is happening a “Big One” every 150 yearsso after the great San Francisco earthquake, another disaster could occur in the next 30 years. The scale of this situation is currently incalculable, even if it could well reach level 9 on the Richter scale.
The consequences could be even more serious if, in addition to the San Andreas Fault, other nearby faults, such as the Hayward Fault in San Francisco Bay and the Newport-Inglewood Fault in southern California, were also activated. At this stage, the National Seismological Service emphasizes that The Hayward Fault has a 31.7% chance of being the epicenter also a great earthquake.
The risk in the region is extreme and the alert also extends globally. Although the epicenter of the earthquake would be the United States, it could reach felt in parts of Latin America, particularly Mexico and Central America and on the west coast of the south of the continent, as well as the possibility of subsequently producing a large tsunami which would affect the east coast of Asia such as Japan.
Thus, the impact of the “Big One” would result in in millions of economic losses and could destroy more than 17,000 buildings. Among the most affected cities: Los Angeles, given its population density and its proximity to the San Andreas fault, San Francisco (with a long seismic history) and San Diego, which despite its southernmost location in the The state of California could also be seriously affected.
More than 82 billion losses
The catastrophic toll for the State of California could reach 17,000 destroyed buildings, even if the California Earthquake Authority and the The United States Geological Survey puts that number at 50,000 only in the country, without counting the damage caused in the rest of the affected countries.
Experts speak of a chaotic scenario given the large number of populations along the San Francisco Bay and a “domino effect” which, if basic services were cut, would significantly increase human losses and property damage. . USGS warns of possible major water outages Therefore, its restoration could take up to more than 6 months, the same as electricity or gas.
On the other hand, it is more than likely that the earthquake will cause other phenomena such as large fires which would reduce residential and public buildings and infrastructure in general to ashes. This is why the official American agency estimates that more than 50,000 households have been affected by the “Big One”.
However, the loss estimate in millions of dollars would far exceed the 80 billion, to which must be added an additional 30 billion from human losses.
