The Popular Party managed to increase its advantage over the PSOE in a month of August marked by the worsening of xenophobic and anti-immigration speeches by the leaders of the party chaired by Alberto Núñez Feijóo and the extreme right. Also after the negotiation between the PSC and ERC in Catalonia that allowed the investiture of Salvador Illa after agreeing on specific financing for the Generalitat to manage all taxes. Despite the context, Vox maintains the same estimate of votes as the previous month, while Se Acabó la Fiesta (SALF), the party of the ultra MEP and hoax agitator Alvise Pérez, is growing.
The August Simple Lógica survey for elDiario.es once again places the PP as the most voted force, a position that Feijóo’s party has not lost since the general elections of July 23, 2023, where it obtained 31.9% of support. Now, the Popular Party would obtain 33.5% of the vote, a percentage identical to that of a month ago. The PSOE, on the other hand, falls and goes from 31.6% of the vote in July to 30.5% this month, which extends the PP’s advantage to three points over the Socialists, compared to 1.9 last month. The Socialists are below 23J, when they obtained 31.2% of support.
Far from the two major parties, Vox maintains third place with the same estimate as in July: 10.5% of the vote. Santiago Abascal’s party continues without making any comeback and remains with an estimate lower than that obtained on the 23rd, that is, 12.3% of support. But the rise of the PP does not translate this month into a decline for Vox. The one who manages to increase his electoral support is Alvise Pérez, who goes from 3.1% of the vote in July – the first time he was questioned about SALF in a Simple Lógica survey after entering the European Parliament, in June – to 3.7% in August.
Sumar continues in free fall, a constant since June 23, when it obtained 12.7% of the votes at the polls. Although it maintains fourth place, the coalition sees its vote estimate reduced to 7.7% and loses almost a point compared to July, weighed down by internal divergences between the different parties that make up the alliance and the lack of clear leadership after Vice President Yolanda Díaz announced in June that she was leaving the general coordination of the Sumar Movement. Podemos achieves a minimum growth of two tenths compared to the previous study and remains with 2.9% of the votes, below Alvise Pérez’s program.
The panorama drawn by the Simple Logica survey has widened the gap between the blocs on the right. The sum of the conservative parties is 47.7% of the votes, 6.6 points above the progressives, who remain at 41.1%. Last July, the advantage of the right was 4.2 points and in the last legislative elections, a year ago, 1.7.
Regarding the evaluation of political leaders in August, the novelty is that the approval rate has fallen for all. The President of the Government, Pedro Sánchez, continues to be the highest rated, with 31.6% of citizens supporting his management. But the percentage has fallen by more than five points compared to July, when 37.2% of Spaniards approved of him, in the midst of the investigation opened by Judge Juan Carlos Peinado against Begoña Gómez. The second vice-president and Minister of Labor, Yolanda Díaz, also remains in second place, although she has gone from 33.9% of voters who approved of her management in July to 29.7% in August, 4.2 points less.
Feijóo continues to be below and very far from the approval percentage of Sánchez and Díaz. The PP leader obtained the support of 24% of citizens, 4.3 points less than in July, when he obtained 28.3%. Abascal also falls and goes from the approval of 17.4% of Spaniards obtained last month to 14.6% in August. Alvise Pérez overthrows the leader of Vox as the leader with the lowest rating in the first Simple Lógica survey that focused on him. 11.6% of citizens approve of his work.
In terms of electoral loyalty, the PP is the party that manages to retain the most supporters. Almost eight out of ten citizens (79.6%) who supported Feijóo on 23J would do so again if general elections were held. The main loss of votes from the popular party is in favour of Vox (5.1% of those who supported the PP in the elections would vote for Abascal), although it also loses support to the SALF (3.5%). 72.6% of Spaniards who voted for the PSOE would opt for the socialists again, although 4.8% would now opt for Sumar, 3.7% would go for the PP and 0.5% for Podemos.
The biggest problems are observed in the electoral loyalty of Vox and Sumar. Although 66.4% of those who participated on June 23 in the vote led by Santiago Abascal would vote again for the extreme right, 14.2% would opt for Alvise Pérez’s party and 6.9% for the PP. As for Sumar, he would now only obtain the support of 60.8% of the Spaniards who had supported his candidacy in July 2023. 12.4% of his voters on June 23 would now vote for the PSOE and 10.5% for Podemos.
