The OECD issued a clear recommendation for Spain on Wednesday: to increase regular migration and activate older workers, among other things, so that the employment level does not fall to 10.3 % from here to 2060, Compared to the average value of 2% of the set of countries that make up the organizationQuestionnaires in its specific section for our country, in its report “Perspective of Employment 2025”, Think than The warning that low fertility and life expectancy in Spain will lead to the greatest decline in employment in relation to the population.
According to its forecasts, the population of labor age in our country will fall up to 30% from 2023 to 2060, which will mean “the greatest decrease in employment levels towards the population of all OECR countries.” This is partly explained by the “low fertility and high life expectancy of Spain”, in front of most countries that make up the group.
The result of all these problems will lead to the fact that elderly people, dependent on a person of working age, “will increase significantly”, compiling from 0.34 in 2023 to 0.75 in 2060.
From this situation caused by demographic changes, Spain will also be deeply affected. “If the increase in performance remains in accordance with its average period of 2006-2019. GDP per capita will increase by only 0.13 % per year From here to 2060, compared with the average value of 0.53 %, registered from 2006 to 2019, ”the OECD experts warn.
Nevertheless, they believe that the closure of the gender gap in employment is at least two -thirds, at the same time that older workers are activated with good health and contribute to this regulation of migration, Spain can increase their annual growth of the population to 0.37%, exceeding their recent historical trend.
In particular, Similar center From developed countries, it emphasizes that in order to achieve the growth of GDP per capita, 0.9% is predicted for the OECD as a whole, “Spain must increase its productivity.”
Increase young people
In the income of the OECR, it emphasizes that those who are known as “Baby -Bummers” had much more income increase than young generations over the past three decades. ” For this reason, they urge them to look for formulas that force young people income to expand, because, if not “the inequality between generations will increase.”
“In 1995, the equivalent family income of young people was 1.3 % higher than that of the older group. This trend was changed in the 2000s, and by 2022 older people of working age had an income 5.6 % higher than that of the lower age group, ”they explain.
Instead of, Spanish millennials’Born after the 1980s, “they survived the limited growth of their income throughout their adulthood, partly due to stagnation of labor productivity in recent decades and the long -term influence of the global financial crisis.”
“The younger generations will face the economic and social problems obtained from the aging of the population. Consequently, the extension of working life in Spain not only contributes to the issue of additional labor resources to increase economic growth, but also to remove the burden of young people whose income is already staway, ”they say.
The highest unemployment in the OECR
On the other hand, the report emphasizes that the Spanish labor market experienced “signs of improvement” during 2025, but continues to distinguish huge problems of the labor market in relation to the level of unemployment, which remains the highest of the OECR, more than half the average value of the group.
Despite this, experts emphasize that the proportion of people working from 15 to 64 years old has been achieved Historical record 66.5% in the first quarter of 2025This questionnaires allowed to significantly reduce the gap in relation to the average level of the OECR, placing it by 3.8 percentage points, unlike almost 10 points that existed after the financial crisis.
In the same way, in contrast to the fact that it is observed in most developed OECR economies, the unemployment rate in Spain continued to decline within 2025, reaching 10.8% in May.
As for the economic prospects, the OECD expects that the Spanish gross domestic product will continue to expand, although at a more moderate level than in previous years. The growth of 2.4% is predicted by 2025 and 1.9% by 2026, which partially affects tension in international trade. Nevertheless, it is expected that domestic demand will continue to help improve the labor market, with the expected decrease in unemployment level to 10.7% at the end of 2025 and 10.1% in 2026.
Employment is growing, salaries are not
Another of the points emphasized by EXPENS on economic experts is the evolution of the real salary of workers. Although unemployment has fallen in recent years, “the growth of wages in Spain has not remained up to date with inflation.”
Although nominal wages increased significantly by 2023 and 2024, the real wage during the first quarter of 2025 remained 4.2% lower than the first quarter of 2021. “This puts Spain in accordance with the evolution of the salary of the eurozone, but over the most part of the main economies of the OECD,” they warn from the OECD. According to data that they expose, only Australia and Italy experienced a decrease in the most pronounced real wage than in Spain.
In addition, the OECD indicates that in Spain, as in most economies belonging to the agency, lower incomes were relatively protected from an increase in inflation that followed the pandemia.
In this context, the report mentioned that by April 2025 the minimum wage in Spain registered a real increase by 3.1% compared to January 2021. However, this progress is below the average OECD, which reached 7.9% in the same interval. Despite this, in clean terms it is emphasized that the minimum wage of the Spanish language continues to amount to more than 60% of the average wage.
