This is a relief for the majority of French households, those who are subscribed to the regulated electricity sales tariff (TRVE). Even before falling next year, EDF’s “blue tariff” will not increase again this year.
As a rule, this rate is revised twice a year by the public authorities. It rose by 8.6% in February (base rate), mainly for fiscal reasons, despite a drop in electricity prices. And in August it should have gained another 1% due to the maintenance costs of the transmission and distribution networks.
That is the principle. Because the Energy Regulatory Commission (CRE) confirmed, on Wednesday, September 11, following a request from the government, the postponement of this second increase. An exceptional decision, “with the aim of price stability and legibility for the consumer”specifies the independent administrative authority.
These network maintenance costs will finally be taken into account in February, because even integrating this future 1% increase, the rate will drop significantly from next year for households, the CRE specifies in its statement.
A drop of “at least 10%” in 2025
Good news for users: a step back “at least 10%” is anticipated on the 1stAhem February 2025. In this case, this development will simply reflect the fall in the price of electricity on the wholesale market, where suppliers get their supplies. However, the current range, between 60 and 70 euros per megawatt hour (MWh), is still higher than before the energy crisis (between 40 and 50 euros). In 2022, prices reached highs for various reasons, in particular the setbacks of EDF with its nuclear fleet, then affected by corrosion problems in certain pipes.
The reduction in the bill could be even greater, depending on the tax system adopted. The CRE’s calculations assume that the internal tax on final consumption of electricity will return, in February, to the level prior to the energy crisis, i.e. 32 euros per megawatt hour. This is, so far, the scenario favoured by Bruno Le Maire, the outgoing Minister of Economy and Finance. But what will happen with his successor?
For now, the tax remains set at 21 euros per MWh. Bruno Le Maire raised it to this level at the beginning of 2024, a way of gradually ending the “tariff shield” that was supposed to protect households: in 2022, this system had reduced the tax to 1 euro per MWh for individuals.
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