Ukraine fears attack by Belarus and Transnistria that would divert troops from Donbass

Although in the end the Russian troops did not enter exactly by this route, Prytula fears that we are facing the beginning of a distraction maneuver This could result in a double attack from the north (Belarus) and the southwest (Transnistria).

It should be noted that both possibilities are currently quite remote. First of all, as Prytula himself admits, the 1,100 Belarusian soldiers would clearly be insufficient to attempt to cross the border. This could serve as bait for Oleksandr Syrskyi’s army, which could be forced to send a few divisions into the area to ensure that there are no surprises later.

In addition, according to the Institute for the Study of War, Belarus’ participation as an active party in the conflict is highly unlikely. Lukashenko is holding presidential elections early next year and does not want any problems. Obviously, he will win the elections no matter what he does, but already in 2021 he has experienced several revolts that the armed forces had to suppress.

The opposition to the Belarusian dictator is divided and dismembered by the government’s ongoing crackdown, but involving the military in a war would be a highly unpopular act… and would distract it from its current primary occupation: protecting the regime.

On alert for Chernobyl

Overall, the Ukrainian government does not take the Belarusian threat lightly. kyiv did not at all appreciate these military exercises, which served as a pretext for placing so many troops in Gomel. The Defense Ministry issued an official statement this week in which warned Minsk that any action endangering its territorial integrity would receive a severe response.

Poland, a neighbouring country of both states and a member of NATO, is also keeping an eye on the situation, particularly after the invasion of airspace by a Russian projectile during the savage attacks on Lviv last Monday.

The Zelensky government is also not amused by the fact that these exercises are taking place so close to the Chernobyl nuclear power plant, which practically acts as a border between the two countries. The Kiev government has publicly warned of the risks of launching military activity so close to the radioactive security zone, something Russia has already done in its efforts to reach the capital in the first days of the offensive.

Regarding the possible attack that Prytula predicted from TransnistriaIt is true that this was also included in the Ukrainian government’s warning plans before the invasion, but over time this has turned out to be very impractical.

Transnistria is a region of Moldova controlled by a pro-Russian government. Its situation is similar to that of the self-proclaimed republics of Donetsk and Lugansk before the war: it has no international recognition from anyone, not even Russia itself, but in practice it functions as an independent entity.

That said, Transnistria is a very unfavorable place to locate large numbers of men and launch an invasion. For starters, these men could only arrive via the Black Sea, and the Russian fleet has not had full control of the area for some time. How do you transport 10,000 or 20,000 men there by ship and then drop them off in Odessa? It seems like a suicide mission, even by the Russian military’s usual parameters.

lure game

The only purpose of these strange movements, as we have said, is to mislead the Ukrainian high command. These are decoys for Syrsky to send part of the men defending Donbass to the border with Belarus. With the Russian army ten kilometers from Pokrovsk, the large Ukrainian communications and logistics center located in Donetsk, next to the Kramatorsk-Sloviansk conglomerate, it is difficult to think that anyone will take the bait.

And it’s losing Pokrovskas we said on Tuesday, would be of paramount importance for Ukraine. From there they come five highways and several railway lines which supplied food and ammunition to almost the entire Eastern Front. In a way, it fulfilled the function that had been assigned to Avdiivka until its fall in February, after two years of continuous Russian offensives.

Here the problem is more one of accumulation than anything else: ten kilometers in this war is a lot…, but Pokrovsk is not the only city that Ukraine must defend: Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, Vuhledar and Niu York are also seriously threatened and one can wonder if Syrskyi will have enough men to plug all the holes.

For now, it seems he has them resist Kurskwhere the Ukrainian army has been stationed for a month. The territory under its control now covers nearly 1,500 square kilometers and more than a hundred cities are occupied. Russia appears to have contained the invasion before Ukrainian troops took Korenevo and Rilsk.

They also seem to have slowed the advance towards Gir’i, although clashes are constant throughout the region. With what Gerasimov has sent, he can give Stop the Ukrainians, but not to regain groundRussia hopes to achieve this when its mission in Donetsk ends, but one cannot live on trust.

Currently, both countries assume a huge risk: Ukraine has decided to open a new front to relieve the Donetsk front. So far, it has not reached the expected mobilization, but its diminished troops have not collapsed in the face of Russian offensives either. If the advance on Kursk ended up causing the fall of Pokrovsk, it would obviously have turned out badly.

Today, the opposite could happen: Russia could let Ukraine advance on its side of the border in the hope of winning the battle for Donetsk… and fail to do so. In this case, we would find ourselves halfway on both fronts and the consequences could be very harmful for Moscow.