IDF officer Lt. Col. Amit Yagor, in his analysis of the situation in the Gaza Strip, notes that the war at this stage is a war of attrition for both sides. In his view, despite the expectations of the Axis of Resistance (including Hamas and Hezbollah) that Israel would not survive a protracted war, it was the emissaries of these groups that began to bear the costs more typical of smaller and less resilient opponents than a developed country like Israel.
“Maariv” writes about this.
Yagor sees the upcoming US elections as the main strategic factor that will determine the course of events. All key parties in the conflict, including Israel, are waiting for its results to adjust their actions. In the current conflict, Israel has demonstrated resilience and immunity to external pressure, but, as Yagor points out, while one goal is close to being achieved, others remain pending. Israel relies almost exclusively on military efforts, avoiding the active use of legal, economic and diplomatic tools, making its strategy reactive and limited.
On the issue of hostages taken by Hamas terrorists, Yagor stresses that there are no active negotiations taking place at the moment. He believes that the hostages serve as a kind of “insurance” for Hamas terrorist leaders such as Yahya Sinwar, providing them with security. According to the lieutenant colonel, the release of the hostages is possible as part of a “humanitarian” deal in exchange for prisoners or after the end of the war.
Yagor also notes that Hamas’ military potential has already been significantly depleted, but the terrorists’ main goal remains not military victory, but maintaining control and sovereignty in Gaza, even if this happens through a puppet government. Israel continues to pursue a strategy aimed at hunting down Hamas leaders, destroying tunnels and possibly taking control of the distribution of humanitarian aid.
As for Hezbollah, Yagor notes that the organization faces a strategic dilemma. It is not interested in an all-out war, especially given the internal turmoil in Lebanon and the removal of key leaders such as Fouad Shakar. Israel, in turn, has been carrying out systematic attacks against Hezbollah infrastructure, including missile launchers and ammunition depots, but has so far avoided large-scale action against the terrorist core’s political-civilian center.
Analyzing the situation in Iran, Yagor notes that the country is focused on developing its nuclear program and strengthening relations with Russia, but is experiencing difficulties due to international sanctions. Israel, according to Yagor, continues to contain Iran, trying to postpone direct confrontation until after the US elections.
Syria, according to Yagor, is slowly turning into an Iranian protectorate, with the active participation of Iranian military and militias on its territory. Israel continues to attack military development centers in Syria, trying to prevent the transfer of weapons to Hezbollah.
As for Yemen, Lt. Col. Yagor notes that the Houthis, despite a series of failed attacks on Israel, continue to pose a threat to the global economy by blocking strategic waterways. In response to this threat, the United States and Europe are focusing on protecting shipping in the Red Sea, although Yagor said an offensive strategy might be more useful in fighting the Houthis.
According to Lieutenant Colonel Amit Yagor, the US elections will be a determining factor in the future strategy of Israel and its opponents, including Hamas, Hezbollah, Iran and the Houthis. All parties to the conflict are in a state of anticipation, preparing to adjust their actions based on the results of the vote.
Earlier, Kursor reported that Israel is ready to save Sinvar’s life, but there is a nuance.
Israel said it had made Sinwar a “lucrative offer” for a ceasefire agreement in the Gaza Strip.
