Daniel Zvatto, director and editor Radar Latam 360
The decision of President Donald Trump to introduce a 50 % tariff for Brazilian imports – a violation of the rating of freedom of expression of Brazil and the alleged “political persecution” against former President Jero Bolsonaro – marks himself before and after in relations between Washington and Brazil.
What began as a threat of 10 % – part of Trump’s global package – and another of 25 % on steel and aluminum, sharply approached the commercial extent unpublished aggressiveness in the recent history of both countries. But in addition to the lack of solid legal support, this decision is a clear political intervention in the internal affairs of sovereign democracy.
The announcement occurred a few hours after the Brazilian Ministry of Foreign Affairs called the US business manager for the official community of the embassy in defense of Bolsonaro, qualified by Brazilian diplomacy as “unjustified interference”.
This is not an isolated episode. Trump has already rhetorically intervened in other scenarios, such as the interrogation of Israeli justice for the trial, which is currently being carried out against Benjamin Netanyahu for the cause of bribes and conflict of interests. Now the step is still coming: the transformation of section 301 is designed to punish unfair commercial practice – into a political pressure tool. Brazil is not accused of reset or introduction of commercial barriers. In fact, the trade balance is widely used by the preference of the United States, a country that is the second commercial partner of the giant from the South American giant behind China.
Political sanctions are disguised as tariffs
We are faced with egregious manipulations: political sanctions disguised as tariffs in order to include to the governments of other countries to achieve their goals or to defend our “friends”.
The preposition used by Trump is based on the alleged judicial “witch hunt” against Bolsonaro, is currently in court for his role in the coup attempt on January 8, 2023. If it is found guilty, he can receive up to 43 years in prison. The verdict is expected in September. Trump’s decision is equivalent, in fact, to authorize the country to function its judiciary. Legal aberration.
Trump also claims that Brazil threatens US freedoms. He confirms that the Supreme Federal Court issued “secret and illegal decisions on censorship” against US social networks. The accusation, without convincing evidence, enhances the ideological nature of the attack: the punishment of the progressive government led by Lula, which received international visibility and noted the distance from geopolitical subordination to Washington.
Trump also ordered an office of a commercial representative of the United States, an investigation in Brazil, for unfair commercial practice, which can even increase the tariff of 50%.
Perhaps this is perhaps entertainment under the words of Lula in the closure of the Brix summit in Rio, when in response to Trump’s attack and the threat of this group of countries he announced: “The world has changed. We do not want the emperor. We are sovereign countries “? Although Trump clearly does not mention this in his letter, the moment and tone of his answer suggests that, in addition to the question of Bolsonoro, there may be a deeper political motivation: punishment with a disciplinary effect for those who dare to criticize it publicly.
Lula between hardness and caution
The President of Brazil is faced with a complex dilemma. The confrontation story of Trump can answer hard to answer; Do this with warm, can project weakness.
In addition, the Lula government is experiencing a difficult national situation: its popularity is reduced, and the elections of 2026 take only 15 months. The recent Pulse Latam Report from Atlas and Bloomberg shows that 52 % of the Brazilians do not approve of Lula’s leadership, and 42 % support it. As for the performance of the government, the levels are the same: 51 % of disapproval compared to 42 % approval. In both cases, this trend indicates an increase in disapproval.
What is put on the card goes far beyond the scope of commercial relations. This is a fire test for mutual respect between sovereign democracies. Latin American history demonstrates that external intervention – political or economic – usually has cleaning effects. In this case, Trump’s onset can even strengthen the lulu, creating the effect of national unity against the external threat.
In this context of the Lula, there may be a temptation to politically extract this insult. Similar cases have already occurred: in Canada, Mark Karni managed to change the campaign with a decrease due to Trump’s attacks; In Mexico, the constant persecution of the former US president contributed to the high approval of the President of Shanbaum.
At the moment, the initial reaction of Lula was fast and solid. He urgently gathered his office and said that “to any one -sided measure of increase in tariffs will be responsible in accordance with the Law on Economic Reciprocity”, approved in April. He emphasized the sovereignty of Brazil, respect for his institutions and categorically denied the arguments introduced by Trump: Brazilian acts of justice independently, freedom of expression of opinions does not justify violence and the United States. UU. It has no commercial deficit from Brazil – on the contrary, over the past 15 years he has accumulated an excess of $ 410,000 million.
As a diplomatic signal, Brazil called consultations with her ambassador in Washington, although it supports open channels: the vice president and at the same time the Minister of Development, Industry, Trade and Services, Geraldo Alkmin, talked with high -ranking American officials to try to mate the crisis.
Economic and geopolitical consequences
The influence of the new tariff of the set. Immediately threatens key sectors, such as agro export, aluminum and production. But its greatest effect is political: institutional confidence undermines diplomatic channels and can push Brazil to strengthen their connections with partners from the world south, such as China and India. This is evidenced by Lula Beijing as part of the Chelak-Kita summit and her recent bilateral meeting in Brazil with Narendra Modi immediately after the BRICS meeting.
In the world of growing multipolarity, the punitive universalism of Trump enhances the idea that the United States has become an unpredictable, aggressive and blackmail partner.
High tension hemisphere script
If Lula, apparently, re-elects triumph in 2026, Latin America could join the stage marked by coexistence during 2027-2028 of two antagonistic leaders-tramp and Lula in the head of the main powers of the hemisphere. High friction scenario. If, on the contrary, the Brazilian opposition of the right or extreme right triumph may be diplomatic restructuring. However, even this does not guarantee stability: Trump has already shown that his style does not distinguish between allies and opponents.
During his first term, and now that he was returning, Trump was faced with historical allies and commercial partners, such as the European Union, Mexico, Canada, Japan and South Korea. His transaction foreign policy, based on the motto of the “first” of the United States, makes any country – without importing its orientation – in hostage to its electoral needs.
In short, the conflict between Trump and Lula was not whether this would happen, but when and with what intensity. And everything indicates that we hardly at the beginning of the process in complete evolution. There are days of intense diplomatic efforts aimed at achieving the conflict. Therefore, he must analyze this serenity, but without naivety. The truth is that Trump revised tariffs as geopolitical tools closer to sanctions introduced into countries such as Iran or Russia than to a commercial adaptation tool.
The 50 % rate reveals the risks associated with the foreign policy of Trump: unpredictable, arbitrarily and deeply destabilizing. The background of this irrational measure is clear: for Trump, protecting the freedom of expression of opinions and Bolsonaro is an ideal pretext to punish the progressive government that does not obey its designs.
While Trump acts on the basis of his impulses, moving and retreating in his decisions in special and unpredictable, in principle there is no easy exit from confrontation between Trump and Lula. Most of the Brazilian elite considers Bolsonaro’s decision as a key issue of protecting democracy. And it is impossible to close the lawsuit through the political order of the executive branch to the judiciary, as Trump requires.
And the consequence of this behavior is deeply alarming. Instaad of Exercising a Responsight Leadership of a Superpower That Contributes to the Order, Predictictability and Global Stability, Trump Has Opted for a Form of Matonism “that isForming to the united states – when it is to be fulfilled prophet aear from its Return to the White House -” indispensable ” EVOKED BY FORMER Secretary of state Madeleine albright, to -increasingly unpredictable nation, to -increasingly unpredictable nation is irresponsible and dangerous.
