The President of the United States is preparing to close one of the most excited weeks in tariff issues since April, when he activated his attack on mutual indicators in relation to dozens of countries. With 22 letters already sent by commercial partners and a new 50% tariff for copper on the table, there is no only the most anticipated message: the one that threatens the European Union. Meanwhile, Brussels is trying to evade the coup, share positions between the capitals and win the time until the new term, which Trump noted: August 1. For the EU, the best result can no longer avoid tariffs, but they do not exceed the threshold of the current 10%. Everything indicates that, more than closing, letters note the beginning of another round of pressure and the negotiations in the sector.
Trump is preparing to close the most accidental week in commercial materials since April last year, when he shot all countries with his famous mutual tariffs. In recent days, he sent 22 letters to the relevant countries and announced a new 50% of the copper tariff, but the most important mail is absent, which should receive the EU. European stock markets are already prone to the fact that the letter will arrive earlier, late and will not bring good news.
At the moment, Brussels fought from famous letters, but the US president noted that he was going to send him today or tomorrow. “It seems that the EU capitals are divided into whether asymmetric consent is accepted or to accept repressions, which leaves a certain risk of climbing, and for the EU, the best possible scenario is that tariffs do not increase compared to current levels, already high by 10%,” says Ruben Segura-Cayuel, the main economist of America for Europe.
For several weeks, Brussels intentions were filtered to try to achieve this goal and begin some exceptions in some strategic products. But taking into account the history of letters, it would be amazing that Trump is behind 20% of the tariff, with which he threatened the day of exemption.
In practice, the letters are not the end of the game, but Open a new perception of negotiations until August 1, which has become a new extreme period imposed by Trump on your commercial partnersThe field “New deadline, the temporary absence of a new threat against the EU and its assumption that the date on August 1 can still be flexible, can be considered moderately positive news,” says Holger Schmiling, chief economist Berenberg.
Aspirations
“Nevertheless, the threat of tariffs is 25% of imports from Japan and South Korea. These tariffs are high, close to those that Trump declared on his poorly named day of liberation on April 9, ”he emphasizes. No one in Brussels hopes to get a profitable consent for all parties with a maximum that seeks, is not a decrease in damage. “The EU capitals are increasingly realizing that 10% of the tariff type is the best offer on the table, in exchange for the adoption of 10% of the main tariff, the EU is looking for concessions, including the abbreviated type of import of car and steel and the exceptions of future tariffs for pharmaceutical products,” the Bank of America said.
“The United States has postponed the deadline until August 1, and this gives us a little longer, but, on our part, we continue to concentrate, intensive negotiations on the agreement were held,” said Valdis Dombrovskis, Commissioner for Economics. Buslax wants to close the agreement as soon as possible in order to avoid damage caused by uncertainty to the economy.
Negotiations, according to the visible, are complicated by some internal disagreements in the EU, something common in society. “Countries with high exposure to the US goods market, such as Germany and most of the northern and eastern countries, prefer a more flexible position to quickly close the agreement, while France and other countries, mainly from southern Europe, prefer a tougher poseIncluding the threat of significant repressions against additional American tariffs, ”they explain from Berenberg.
Some experts are already going beyond a possible agreement. If there is, Trump will attack the sector sector, so the desire to find advantages for specific products will withstand US strategies. “Despite the insanity of the negotiations, the American position remains unchanged: protectionism is political, and does not have for us, the basic tariff of 10% remains a minimum, while it is likely that specific additional tariffs are announced for each sector as soon as most agreements are closed,” they warn from ING.
Currently, the United States already apply the basic tariff of 10?% To most European products, with 25% high indicators for cars and components and 50?% For steel and aluminum. Nevertheless, Washington sent official warnings that expect possible activation of additional indicators up to 50% in strategic sectors, including agricultural, pharmaceutical and technological products.
