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Moncloa and Brussels want to avoid with Edmundo the mistake made with Guaidó

During his first week in Spain, Edmundo González Urrutia received significant support from the Congress of Deputies, which voted in favor of recognizing him as the elected president of Venezuela. The parliamentary majority united by the PP honored the opponent’s resounding victory Nicolas Maduro to the polls. And Pedro Sánchez, although the PSOE decided to abstain, organized a meeting with him yesterday in Moncloa.

The ambivalence of the government, which has not accepted Maduro’s self-proclaimed triumph, has led many analysts to ask questions, and the most repeated answer, without any more explicit support, is the experience of the government’s failure. Juan Guaidosince his recognition as interim president of Venezuela has not produced the expected results.

It is worth going back in time. February 22, 2019. Cúcuta, border between Venezuela and Colombia. Guaidó travels to a foreign country to attend a music concert in defense of democracy, despite the ban on leaving his territory. They accompany him Sebastian PineraPresident of Chile, and Ivan DuqueColombian head of state. The expectation is immense. More than one is enthusiastic about the beginning of a peaceful transition.

Guaidó appears in the middle of the crowd. With an attitude that is both joyful and provocative towards his opponents, he positions himself in the center of the square. A recital organized by the British billionaire Richard Bransonis about to start. The goal: to raise funds to address the food and medicine shortages affecting Venezuela. The mood is one of hope.

Juan Guaidó, “interim” president of Venezuela in 2019, alongside the former presidents of Chile, Colombia and Paraguay.

More than five years have passed since then, and positive feelings do not dominate the atmosphere. The regime continues to cling to power and Guaidó, who at the time emerged as Maduro’s natural successor, has been living in Miami since April 2023. What happened that day in Cúcuta? Were those who rushed to accept his legitimacy as interim president mistaken? For the moment, Spain and the rest of the European Union are measuring the steps and deadlines.

Mistakes and successes

Spain was one of the first countries to recognize Guaidó. So did the United States, Germany, France, the United Kingdom, Denmark, Austria and Sweden. Much of Latin America joined in. But just two years later, the EU began to label him an “opposition leader.” During those days, the leader was subjected to unprecedented repression, having to flee first to Colombia and then to Florida.

Its recognition, according to some experts, has caused more state violence in the country and greater isolation of Venezuela. For others, it is the only correct way to end tyranny in the country. This is how he considers it Roberto Ampueroformer Minister of Foreign Affairs and former Ambassador of Chile to Spain. According to him, it takes time to end dictatorships, and not achieving this in 2019 in Cúcuta does not mean that the same strategy should not be applied.

“Those who oppose the recognition of his victory are making two mistakes: they are giving free rein to the executioner Maduro and they are punishing the victim,” he told EL ESPAÑOL. “They are leaving him in exile like any other exile, without the precious card that comes with his recognition as the winner of the election. Or does anyone honestly believe that there was a tie?”

Meanwhile, in Brussels, different solutions to the crisis are being explored, without much light at the moment. Joseph BorrellThe head of European diplomacy, said that “it is time”, because it will not be until January when the new administration will become official. He also stressed his confidence in the negotiating role of Mexico, Brazil and Colombia.

For Ampuero, who in addition to being a diplomat is a novelist, it is not foreign countries that should define the horizon. On the contrary, he says, everyone should follow the path traced by the Venezuelan opposition: “Democrats need less proconsular arrogance and more modest solidarity.”

Spanish support

Beyond the government’s reluctance, Congress has chosen which side it wants to take. German riversPresident of the Observatory of Latin American Politics and Economy of the IE University, in conversation with EL ESPAÑOL, applauds the action of the deputies. “One of the few measures that the Venezuelan opposition has is international pressure on the Maduro regime and the possibility of negotiating.” Ampuero, for his part, describes the initiative as “a gesture of civic courage and recognition of Edmundo’s dignity.”

The text confirms that the recognition is the response to the refusal of the authorities, in particular the National Electoral Center, to make the tables public, as well as the publication by the opposition of more than 80% of the electoral registers. They also rely on the conclusions of the Carter Center and the United Nations, both observers during the elections of June 28.

The parliamentary majority has set the goal of bringing Edmundo to the presidency on January 10, the day on which the change of power should take place. For this, in addition to recognizing it, calls on EU to demand end to attacks on protesters and the restitution and the aggravation of sanctions against those responsible for the regime.

Although the “ghost” of Juan Guaidó also marked his presence in the seat of Parliament, defenders of the measure argue that one case is not comparable to the other. Edmundo, unlike the former opposition leader, would have won the elections with the support of more than seven million compatriots. This would give him popular sovereignty.

Thus, Rios observes: “Without it being a mistake, it must be recognized that his (Guaidó’s) mandate was very weak. He proclaimed himself president with a questionable legal structure.” Now, a few months before a new takeover in Venezuela, countries will have to define their position.

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