It is possible that the decision to support Edmundo González responds to the need of the PNV not to distance itself from the important Basque nationalist colony that has existed in Venezuela for more than a century and that, on several occasions in the past, has been decisive even for the survival of the party. But voting with the PP goes beyond these reasons
The PNV’s decision to vote with the PP for the recognition of Edmundo González as the winner of the Venezuelan elections is the most striking fact in the crazy Spanish political chronicle of recent weeks. Not so much because of its possible diplomatic consequences, which could be minimal and would be acceptable even if they went further, but because it is a serious warning in terms of Spanish politics. The PNV has come to say that one day, if the circumstances arise, it could perfectly join the right to oust Sánchez from the government. Together, they have the votes in favor.
The spokesman for the Basque Nationalist Party in Madrid, Aitor Esteban, said on Thursday that this would not happen in the foreseeable future. That the pact with the PSOE remains intact. “As long as they respect what was agreed, we will be there,” he said. But neither he nor the senior leaders of his party, who are generally serious people, must have forgotten that his vote with the PP sent a message that was bound to cause a lot of concern in La Moncloa.
It is possible that the decision to support Edmundo González responds to the need of the PNV not to distance itself from the important Basque nationalist colony that has existed in Venezuela for more than a century and that, on several occasions in the past, has been decisive even for the survival of the party. But voting with the PP goes beyond these reasons. Above all because until now it was believed that in the face of the distance of the Catalans from Junts and the problems that Sánchez has had and could have with Esquerra, the pact with the Basque nationalists was solid as a rock.
However, it turns out that this is not entirely guaranteed. Which adds a new element of uncertainty to the already complex political outlook and, above all, to the work that Pedro Sánchez will have to do to extend the legislature and delay as much as possible the call for general elections.
Although you never know, it could be that the survival of the Government will not be called into question until at least next spring. This does not mean that the PP will abandon its frantic campaign of attrition, that every week or ten days it will not launch itself to disqualify any government initiative as if they were attacks on the very essence of Spain.
Even if this battle lasts only a week or ten days, it is then forgotten. As happened to the denunciation of the horror of the appointment of José Luis Escriva as governor of the Bank of Spain – annulled on the day that all the big banks supported him without reservation – or to the furious attacks on the amnesty. This will eventually run out, no matter how hard Judge Pablo Llarena tries with his weak argument that Puigdemont and his people got rich thanks to the referendum. Another case that could expire soon is that of the accusations against Begoña Gómez, the president’s wife: the Provincial Court of Madrid has just requested the entire file from Judge Peinado and more than one expert believes that this is the prelude to the case file.
Beyond that, in the next six or seven months – who knows if more – the political time will be marked by the congresses of the PSOE and the two Catalan independence parties, all three scheduled for November.
From what little is known so far, the socialists’ plan should serve to strengthen Sánchez’s internal power and renew some regional leaderships of the party in order to improve their positions in the next regional elections. These two tasks will occupy for many weeks, before and after the congress itself, the energy and time of a good part of the socialist organization. It is very likely that this will lead to postponing the efforts to approve a new budget, another of the government’s great challenges, until the first months of next year.
Among other things, because the fate of this budget also depends on the outcome of the congresses of the Junts and the Esquerra Republicana. Regarding its orientation in Spanish politics and also in relation to the internal situation in which both parties find themselves after the debate in Congress, which promises to be intense and could end up being explosive. Especially in the case of Esquerra, which is already on fire. Salvador Illa is the first to want the future of this party not to call into question the support it is giving today to his presidency.
At the beginning of next year, all these unknowns will be more or less clarified. And it will be time to take stock. The government will have to do it. As will the opposition. And also the PNV.
