In Berlin, the electoral calendar is becoming clearer and faster. Six days after the implosion of the coalition of Social Democratic Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD), caused by the latter’s decision to dismiss his Finance Minister, the liberal Christian Lindner (FDP), the Christian Democratic opposition (CDU/CSU) and The SPD agreed on Tuesday, November 12, the date of the early elections. According to the agreed schedule, Scholz should officially propose to the Bundestag to raise the “question of confidence” on December 11; Then the deputies will vote on December 16, which will cause the fall of their government, due to lack of majority.
The dissolution of the Assembly must then be decided by the President of the Republic, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, and early elections will be called within a period of sixty days. These should take place on February 23, 2025. Germany, accustomed to holding legislative elections just before the Munich Oktoberfest, may have to vote this time during preparations for the carnival, which begins on February 27.
The two dates – that of the vote of confidence and that of the elections –, brought forward one month with respect to the calendar announced by the chancellor on November 6, are the result of negotiations between social democrats and Christian democrats. Friedrich Merz, CDU president and probably future chancellor, advocated a dissolution as early as mid-November, while Olaf Scholz hoped to take time to pass some laws in the Bundestag until mid-January, even in the absence of a majority. Therefore, an agreement was reached.
If the campaign has already started, the two parties must arrange possible future cooperation: in view of the latest polls, the next government is likely to be a grand coalition formed by the conservatives of the CDU/CSU and the social democrats of the SPD. , the only alliance that seems capable of gathering an absolute majority in two components at the end of the next elections. Currently, the CDU/CSU obtains around 34% of voting intentions, the SPD oscillates between 15% and 17%, while the Greens only reach 12% and the FDP 5%. The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), with which any alliance is excluded, receives 18%.
Scholz government very unpopular
Friedrich Merz, who has just celebrated his 69th birthday, hopes to benefit from the dynamics resulting from the fall of the unpopular Scholz government. The CDU’s ability to get closer to 35% will depend on its political weight in the future government and, therefore, on the duration of the talks to draft the “coalition contract”, the roadmap formulated by the parties they have elected. govern together. But even if prepared in advance, these negotiations should last several weeks after the February 23 elections. Therefore, the future government could not take office until April 2025 at the earliest.
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