NEWSru.co.il continues to publish reviews on the political situation in Israel written by journalist Gabi Wolfson
This week the mood in Israel’s political system changed. Until recently it seemed that the political train was speeding along a route with the word “elections” written on the final station. However, in recent days something has changed in the speeches, especially in the tone of those who are on this train. The creation of a national unity government is back on the agenda and it cannot be said that the opposition rejects this idea outright. Netanyahu is creating a new war cabinet and the ultra-Orthodox continue to threaten the collapse of the coalition if the conscription law is not passed. Coincidentally or not, these changes occurred against the backdrop of statements by the Minister of Defense and others about the imminent full-scale war with Hezbollah. But the legal battle continues and this week it crossed state borders.
And again the Saarland, and again the ultra-Orthodox.
Gideon Saar AND Benjamin Netanyahu Negotiations have resumed on the possibility of Yamin Mamlakhti’s head joining the coalition. The report, published this week by journalist Tal Shalev (Walla), was very weakly and unconvincingly refuted by the Prime Minister’s Office and not at all by people close to Saar. At the same time, no one really knows how close they are to reaching an agreement. Saar’s basic requirement is to get the portfolio of Minister of Defense. The Likud offers Saar other portfolios. From the point of view of the “Yamin Mamlakhti” chapter, we are talking about unacceptable proposals. In addition, those around Saar fear that Netanyahu is playing a game with two goals at the same time: to push forward Yoava Galanta to dismiss and appease the ultra-Orthodox partners. Once these objectives have been achieved, those close to Saar fear that Netanyahu will hand over the defence minister portfolio to someone else and that the negotiations will fail.
The possibility of Saar joining Netanyahu’s government has been in the air for almost two months, but it has never taken the form of concrete proposals or real ideas. There were talks, contacts, hints. Nothing concrete emerged and Saar backed off, especially since there are numerous disagreements between him and Netanyahu on fundamental issues. These differences can be overcome, but this, as with many other issues, requires a political decision that Netanyahu is in no hurry to make.
The catalyst for the negotiations between Netanyahu and Sa’ar in recent days has been the ultra-Orthodox bloc Ya’adut HaTorah. Its head Itzhak Goldknopf Goldknopf launched a series of harsh attacks on the Prime Minister. The ultra-Orthodox are outraged that the bill has not yet been passed. Realizing that after the budget was passed, Netanyahu would lose all incentive to try for them, Ya’adut HaTorah resorted to threats. “Without a conscription law, there is nothing to discuss about the budget,” Goldknopf said, adding that if it were not for the war, his party would have left the coalition long ago. At first glance, this threat does not weigh much. Nothing wonderful awaits the ultra-Orthodox parties outside the coalition. In the coalition that Bennett or Gantz will create, and even more so Lieberman or Lapid, they will, in extreme cases, be distant relatives, deprived of the right to demand anything. They understand this and will not rush into elections. At the same time, the political leaders of Ya’adut HaTorah are under intense pressure from rabbis who demand real achievements from Goldknopf, not vague promises. The replacement of Yoav Galant, whose position on the bill is far from that of Goldknopf and Gafni, by Gideon Saar, considered closer to ultra-Orthodox circles, may be some kind of proof of the seriousness of Netanyahu’s intentions.
Government of National Unity: Theory and Practice
A national unity government is the dream of all or almost all Israelis in times of national crisis. “All together, holding hands and putting aside petty differences and dirty politics, the representatives of the people work for the good of the nation. The representatives of the people themselves understand well what exactly the people like and give it to them generously.” Dreams.
Mahane Mamlakhti and Yesh Atid say they are willing to take such a step, but subject to an agreement with Netanyahu on an agreed date for early Knesset elections. Kill Kaana He went a step further and proposed dropping the requirement to set a date for elections. “Until it is possible to remove the worst government in Israel’s history, everything must be done to minimize the damage it causes. To do this, it is necessary to create a national unity government,” said the Mahane Mamlakhti MK. This call is unlikely to be heeded.
There are different voices in Yesh Atid. Party leader Yair Lapid repeats his proposal to provide the government with a “safety net” to approve a deal to release the hostages. In turn, MP Elazar Stern He told me on the Kan REKA programme that the agreed date for the elections is a condition for the party to join the government. He repeated that his condition (the withdrawal of Ben Gvir from the coalition) remains in force. “I think that extremists will not want to remain in our government,” he added.
Avigdor Liberman and the rest of the opposition are out of this game. The head of the NDI said more than once that he would not enter into political alliances with Netanyahu, but he continued to demand and achieve the resignation of the government.
Benjamin Netanyahu himself is silent on the prospects of changing the composition of the coalition. The head of government would certainly be happy to stop depending on the “natural partners” of the current coalition. At the same time, Netanyahu demands guarantees that the history of 1998 will not be repeated, when, after the signing of the Wye agreement, Ehud Barak He promised Netanyahu a safety net that “broke” even before the head of government returned to Israel. For the same reason, it is unlikely that Netanyahu will be willing, on his own initiative, to remove Smotrich and Ben-Gvir, or at least one of them, from the government. Between Netanyahu on the one hand and Lapid and Gantz on the other, there is such an atmosphere of mistrust that mere slogans about the desire for unity are not enough. However, not everything is in the hands of our politicians. Much will depend on the name of the person. Hassan NasrallahIf we do indeed face another round of large-scale confrontation, this time in the North, it is quite possible that the political deck will be reshuffled again and the possibility of forming a government will once again become real.
New War Cabinet: Balance without Ben-Gvir
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu forms a new war cabinet. The previous one, remember, was dissolved after Benny Ganz AND Gadi Eisenkot He left the government and, consequently, the cabinet. For a long time, a new cabinet was not formed due to a categorical demand. Itamara Ben-Gvira to join him and the no less categorical refusal of the Prime Minister to accept this demand.
Ben-Gvir was also not included in the current forum. Netanyahu is shaping the forum’s composition in such a way that it depends minimally on anyone, and especially on Ben-Gvir. In the new forum there is equality of power and the prime minister retains the final say. Three participants in the forum – Defense Minister Galant, Strategic Planning Minister Dermer and Shas chief Deri – will support any proposal for an agreement or ceasefire. Three ministers – Justice Minister Levin, Foreign Minister Katz and Treasury Minister Smotrich – will support any proposal to expand the war. Netanyahu always has the opportunity to finally decide the outcome of a particular discussion.
The participation of the Minister of Finance in this forum is of great interest. Bezalel Smotrich. By all appearances, Netanyahu had two goals in inviting him to this forum: to separate him from Ben-Gvir and, if possible, drive a wedge between them, and to continue trying to win his support in a possible vote on the agreement. If support cannot be obtained, Benjamin Netanyahu wants to ensure, if possible, that Smotrich does not leave the government.
Those close to the prime minister have denied the creation of a new war cabinet. In any case, any strategic decision is taken by the military-political cabinet. Netanyahu is not guaranteed a majority there.
And the plan to create a split between Smotrich and Ben-Gvir was apparently a great success. At a meeting with the Prime Minister on the expansion of terrorist detention centers, Ben-Gvir, like any minister, demanded additional funding. Bezalel Smotrich, like any finance minister, rejected this demand and the conversation ended in shouting and an exchange of accusations. This is unlikely to upset the Prime Minister too much.
Legal battles: from the High Court to The Hague
Last week, the High Court of Justice has once again shown that it will always have the final say. The High Court unanimously decided that the Minister of Justice must start the process of confirming the head of the Supreme Court within two weeks. They, to the chagrin of the Minister of Justice, will apparently become isaac amitIt is hard to imagine that in the time left an agreement will be reached that has not been reached so far. It should be noted that so far all compromises have been proposed exclusively by the Minister of Justice. The judiciary has only rejected them. Levin has already stated that he does not intend to cooperate with the president of the Supreme Court elected in this way. The crisis in relations between levels of power has not been resolved.
The legal battles were not limited to the domestic front, however. One of the issues that most concerns the prime minister is the possibility that the International Criminal Court in The Hague could issue an arrest warrant against him. Israeli media reported this week that Netanyahu and Levin had been in communication with the government’s legal adviser. Gali Baarav-Miare with an original proposal: to open an investigation against Netanyahu, Galant and others on their own initiative, and then close the cases by informing the ICC prosecutor that the investigation has been carried out. International authorities, let us remind you, intervene only when there are fears that local investigative authorities are evading inspection. Gali Baarav-Miara rejected this original proposal, motivating it even more original: they say that there are no grounds for starting an investigation. One way or another, the attempted trick failed, and the fact that the information was leaked to the press clearly will not improve relations between Netanyahu and the Hague court, on the one hand, and the government’s legal adviser and the prime minister, on the other.
