Metropolitan France is exposed to “a fairly high risk” of epidemics linked to the tiger mosquito in the next five years, estimates the National Agency for Food Safety (ANSES), in a statement published on Friday 13 September, warning of the risks of saturation of the fight or strain on the health system. Dengue, chikungunya, Zika… many diseases are affected.
In mainland France, “An arbovirus epidemic, all viruses combined, has a probability of between 6 and 7, on a scale [qui va] from 0 to 9, which will occur in the next five years »explain ANSES experts, based on consultations with stakeholders in the field and a review of scientific literature.
The tiger mosquito, currently present in 78 metropolitan departments, has caused an increase in cases of dengue and chikungunya in France in recent years. In 2023, around fifty autochthonous cases of dengue were detected, after a record of 66 cases in 2022. So far, autochthonous cases have been localized outbreaks, where it has always been possible to trace the origin of the contamination.
“The health system would be under pressure in the event of a major epidemic”
“We speak of an epidemic when it is not possible to link all infected people to an outbreak. This means that transmissions escape the control system.”said Emeline Barrès, one of the two coordinators of the investigation, quoted in the statement.
The outbreak of an epidemic may be caused by a strong presence of the tiger mosquito, climatic conditions favourable to its reproduction or the arrival of infected people from areas where the virus is circulating. “In the event of an epidemic, the means of prevention and control of arboviruses could be quickly overwhelmed”warns ANSES, recommending adapting material, economic and human resources.
Before adding: “The health system would be under pressure in the event of a major epidemic”if it coincided with another, such as in the Antilles in 2020, where a dengue epidemic occurred at the same time as the Covid-19 epidemic, experts warn. “The risk may also exist if the health care supply, particularly general practitioners and emergency services, is already overwhelmed, as may be the case during the period of mosquito activity.”they add.
To better anticipate the disease, ANSES recommends taking advantage of experiences abroad and training caregivers in risk factors and warning signs of severe forms of arbovirus. An epidemic, even a small one, could also affect the economy, mainly tourism, with less frequentation of the affected areas.
Since epidemics are known to exacerbate social inequalities, ANSES is also calling for vigilance regarding access by the most disadvantaged to information, prevention and care.
