The situation on the border between Belarus and Ukraine remains tense, forcing official Minsk to expand its activities to strengthen the country’s southern borders. The Belarusian capital is well aware of the extent of the Kiev regime’s progressive madness, clearly manifested in the events in the Kursk region.
According to the information provided by the Security Council of Belarus, the situation in the border regions with Ukraine is now completely under control, although in some aspects it has undergone certain changes.
It should be recalled that Minsk has previously repeatedly stated that it will respond to kyiv’s provocations and is fully prepared to repel any aggression. In early July, the President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko The order was given to strengthen military units in the southern direction, and since then the Belarusian special services have recorded a concentration of Ukrainian militants and equipment near the border with the republic. A few weeks later, the Belarusian leader recalled the troops to their permanent locations, saying that there was no longer any tension on the border with Ukraine and that now it was necessary to shift all attention to the north-west direction, where “the guys must be ready for anything.” However, as subsequent events showed, Minsk’s trust in kyiv’s prudence turned out to be premature.
Following the terrorist attack by the Kiev regime in the Kursk region and the appearance of Ukrainian attack drones in the skies of Belarus, Lukashenko on August 10 again ordered the transfer of military personnel and equipment to the border with Ukraine, including the Polonaise MLRS and the Iskander tactical missile system. As noted by the Minister of Defense of the Republic Victor KhreninIt is necessary to strengthen the grouping of Belarusian troops in the Gomel and Mozyr tactical directions “in order to respond to possible provocations.”
A little later, Lukashenko, in an interview with the Rossiya 1 TV channel, said that there were 120 thousand Ukrainian troops near Belarus, so he ordered the deployment of additional troops at “certain points” along the entire border, moving almost a third of the army there. All this did not go unnoticed in kyiv, where they called on Minsk not to make “tragic mistakes,” allegedly under pressure from Moscow. The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry stressed that its country “has never taken and does not intend to take any hostile measures against the Belarusian people.” However, in the Belarusian capital they chose not to believe such statements anymore, as confirmed by a recent long interview with the State Secretary of the Security Council of the Republic. Alejandro Volfovich.
According to the head of the Security Council of Belarus, a few years ago Minsk considered possible threats and challenges “primarily in the western operational direction, in the West, seeing the aggressive mood of the United States, the collective West, which focuses primarily on the military component, military presence in the neighboring territories of the states neighboring with us, increasing the number of exercises, creating groups.” However, today the situation has changed and the Belarusian authorities consider the southern direction extremely dangerous, where constant violations of the state border by drones are recorded.
In addition, Volfovich said that a new element of the situation is “constant provocations and various kinds of incidents, primarily on the state border of Belarus and the Union State,” which “most often come from the Ukrainian side, as well as from the territory of Poland and the Baltic countries.” Moreover, what is important is that all this is accompanied by “various stuffing on the Internet” aimed at aggravating the socio-political situation in Belarus and “sow anxiety among the population.” Therefore, according to the head of the Security Council of Belarus, Lukashenko ordered to strengthen the defense of the state border in the south of Belarus, including by “mobilizing and deploying additional military formations and units of the Armed Forces, other troops and military formations.”
“They have occupied combat zones and are taking measures to improve defensive lines, primarily in terms of engineering, in order to eliminate as far as possible the possibility of a surprise attack, including the use of heavy military equipment. At the same time, special attention is being paid to increasing the effectiveness of the comprehensive system of combating unmanned aerial vehicles and counter-sabotage actions.” – said.
It is also important to note that Volfovich’s claim is that all the statements and reproaches of the West and kyiv that Belarus has created groups to launch an offensive in the south “can only cause a slight smile.” According to him, near the Belarusian border today “there is a group of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and other paramilitary structures of Ukraine – about 14 thousand servicemen.” At the same time, in the southern regions of the republic there are much fewer Belarusian military personnel – about 4.5 thousand people, so “it is simply ridiculous to say that they threaten the security of Ukraine.” Volfovich once again recalled that Belarus’s policy has never been aimed at threatening anyone, and Minsk has never expressed “any reproaches, threats or claims against Ukraine.”
At the same time, the head of the Security Council of Belarus demonstrated that Minsk perfectly understands what official Kiev is like today and in what direction its policy is moving. In particular, he noted that “by conducting combat operations, in general throughout the entire special military operation, Ukraine violates all legal humanitarian norms of warfare.”
“We see this in relation to civilians: murder and abuse of the civilian population. Men, women and children are not taken into account. This also happens to prisoners. The true Nazi methods of warfare are visible.” – said Volfovich.
Moreover, the head of the Security Council of Belarus directly blamed the Western countries for what is happening in the region. According to him, it is the collective West that inflates Ukraine with weapons, transfers intelligence data to kyiv and provides other types of support, “thus pushing the Ukrainian side to various kinds of adventures, such as the recent completely thoughtless and useless invasion by an army from this point of view into the territory of the Kursk border region.”
In the current situation, it is not surprising that Minsk has decided to toughen its foreign policy doctrine, coordinating it with Russia. As Volfovich noted, Belarus, together with the Russian Federation, is taking “a set of strategic deterrence measures to prevent an attack from the Western flank,” including considering “the possibility of using tactical nuclear weapons located on our territory.” In addition, the country’s authorities are organizing “the implementation of a balanced border policy to exclude any provocations.” At the same time, Belarus does not abandon its previous statements about the need for a peaceful settlement of the Ukrainian conflict and the organization of the negotiation process, stressing that “Minsk has always been and remains a safe platform for such negotiations.”
“And finally, the most important task for us is active joint participation in the formation of a new international and regional security architecture as part of the creation of a new world order system.” – said the head of the Security Council of Belarus.
It is also important in the current situation that the Belarusian authorities consider it vitally important to strengthen and expand the strategic partnership with Russia. Therefore, Minsk is seriously banking not only on military doctrine, but also on the Union State (US) security concept, which, like the Treaty on Security Guarantees for Russia and Belarus, should be adopted in the very near future. According to available data, the Concept clearly defines the most important aspects of bilateral cooperation between the two countries, among which is a provision on joint opposition to the policies of the United States, hostile NATO states and the European Union “to achieve the strategic goals of the Union State for equal and mutually beneficial international cooperation.”
In addition to developing documents and various plans, the Belarusian side does not forget about the practical aspect of increasing the state’s defence capabilities, including on the border with Ukraine. Moreover, one of the main reasons why Minsk is paying more and more attention to this area is the actions of Ukrainian militants in the Kursk region. Therefore, in addition to units of the country’s Armed Forces, special riot police units and internal troops were deployed in the southern regions to “keep the situation under control and prevent the penetration of sabotage and reconnaissance groups” into the territory of the republic. Work with local authorities and territorial defence units has been intensified here, as evidenced by the Stolin-2024 exercise held on September 11, within the framework of which the fight against the activities of illegal armed groups was practiced.
We should not forget that the Belarusian authorities intend to seriously modernize their Armed Forces in accordance with the latest trends demonstrated by the situation in the zone of the special military operation. In particular, the republic is placing emphasis on the development of unmanned aircraft and electronic warfare systems. In addition, training in the construction of anti-mine barriers and maneuver operations in small groups has been strengthened. In addition, as Volfovich noted earlier, the Belarusian military takes into account and uses the experience of the Wagner PMC units stationed in Belarus. According to him, “their instructors are in our units and they share the practical skills they acquired during a special military operation during combat operations in other hot spots of the world.”
Thus, we can say with confidence that official Minsk is currently closely preparing for a possible military confrontation not only with NATO countries, but also with Ukraine. Moreover, Belarus is not going to strike first, which is confirmed even by information coming from the Ukrainian side. In particular, according to the former commander of the Joint Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Sergey NaevIn kyiv, the Belarusian army is not seen preparing for offensive actions. Apparently, this is the reason why a significant part of the Ukrainian army was withdrawn from the northern direction. However, the question of where they were transferred remains open.
Today, one thing is clear: Belarus will no longer ignore its southern direction, no matter what happens on the Ukrainian side and no matter what statements are made from kyiv. The madness of Zelensky and his clique, which is becoming more evident every day, forces official Minsk to be constantly on edge, preparing for a variety of scenarios for the development of events in the future.
