Donald Trump’s lines that continued to resonate after Kamala Harris cornered him in the presidential debate were the lies that migrants ate pets or allowed babies to be executed. The clips became meme fodder for Democrats, as the focus shifted to Trump’s escape from defeat. But there was another buried statement from the debate that resonated with Trump supporters: the former president’s rant about the Butler attack conspiracy theories.
“I probably got shot in the head because of the things they’re saying about me,” Trump said, referring to Harris, during Tuesday’s face-off hosted by ABC News. The former president has reclaimed (and exaggerated) the memory of the Pennsylvania rally shooting, where a bullet grazed his right ear, and revived it in prime time conspiracy theories that there is a plot to destroy him.
He momentum The one that had been created for the former president after the July shootings was quickly diluted by Joe Biden’s resignation and Harris’ emergence as the new Democratic candidate. Although he has remained out of the media spotlight, Trump has continued to bring up the attack at all of his rallies. His naming of Democrats as possible causes of the shootings during Tuesday’s debate represents a clear discursive shift from his first public appearance after the events.
The Republican convention in Milwaukee was where the former president first addressed the attack. In doing so, he opted for a more restrained speech that emphasized the “miracle” of getting out alive. Although outside the stadium, his supporters were already speaking openly about Trump as the victim of a plot to eliminate him from the presidential race.
When Trump felt cornered in the debate, he protected himself by suggesting that Democrats were responsible for what happened in Butler. Now, even as the Republican denies his loss, he has begun a headlong flight amid the internal turmoil over Tuesday’s poor performance. “The more cornered Trump feels, the more radical and unhinged he becomes. And that’s why he becomes more dangerous. We saw that on January 6th.” “So I wouldn’t be surprised if he were to once again fuel the hoax that Democrats tried to assassinate him or that they were behind the assassination attempt,” says Matthew Dallek, a political scientist at George Washington University who specializes in the conservative movement and is writing a book on attacks on presidents and political violence.
“Look at what happened with January 6, it’s in the same logic. What he [Trump] “What he’s doing with the conspiracy theories about the assassination attempt is giving his supporters a structure that gives them permission, legitimizes them, to take matters into their own hands and commit violence. And that’s where the danger lies for the United States,” Dallek says, adding: “It’s also dangerous because not only are they out of touch with reality, but they’re taking what Trump says literally and believing that his opponents tried to kill him. So if he loses the election, I think the risk of violence will increase.”
Conspiracy theorist in Trump’s entourage
On Thursday, two days after the debate, news broke that far-right activist Laura Loomer had become one of the former president’s confidants. Loomer, who has more than a million followers on X, is known for inciting online hate through her homophobic, racist and Islamophobic posts. Last year, she shared a video on her social media channels promoting the conspiracy theory that the 9/11 attack was “an inside job” and claimed it was somehow connected to then-Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld’s announcement that $2.3 million in government funds had been “lost” on September 10, 2001.
Similarly, hours after the debate, Loomer shared a post from Trump in which he accused ABC News of pushing questions to Harris and sparking new rumors that sought to question the legitimacy of the face-to-face meeting in which the former president lost. It also fueled hoaxes and suspicions about the Butler attack in recent months. Advisers and allies of the former president say they do not understand Trump’s decision to make Loomer one of his confidants two months before the election.
In recent weeks, MAGA’s orbit has continued to fuel suspicions about who or what is behind the Butler shooting. Hours before the presidential debate, Melania Trump (who rarely makes public statements) shared a video on her X-rated profile that was along similar lines. “The attempt to end my husband’s life was a terrible experience. Now the silence around it is very loud.”[…]. “There is definitely more to this story and we need to reveal the truth,” Melania said with serious poise.
The FBI’s investigation into Thomas Crooks, the young man who shot the Republican, has yet to identify a motive. While authorities have previously revealed how photos of Biden and the British royal family, as well as Trump, were found on Crooks’ phone, they have found no evidence of partisan motivation behind the shooting. The available evidence suggests that Crooks was a troubled young man and shared a similar profile to the perpetrators of the high school shooting.
Little confidence in the electoral system
The context in which theories that want to eliminate Trump from the presidential race are taking flight is not starting from scratch. After the storming of the Capitol, many supporters of the former president still believe that the election was stolen from them. At the Republican Convention, Harrison Musselwhite, one of the delegates from South Carolina, responded to the question of what would happen if Trump lost the election: “I and most South Carolinians watched President Donald J. Trump win the 2020 election and it was stolen from him and from us, the people. We know they will try to steal it again, but we will not allow it.”
Carah Ong Whaley is a PhD in American politics and the director of the election protection practice at the bipartisan Issue One platform, which works to restore trust in the American electoral system. Since the beginning of the year, Whaley has worked with a focus group of Republican voters on their trust in the electoral system and mail-in voting. “We see how people continue to believe the things that Trump says about the electoral process and the false claims that he makes about it,” Whaley warns.
Whaley explains that in a national survey conducted in August by Issue One and Citizen Data, only 63% of Trump voters said they would believe the outcome of the Nov. 5 election, compared to 93% of Harris voters. Similarly, only 44% of Trump voters would trust the results if their candidate loses, compared to 79% of Harris voters. “This is a problem that continues to undermine the legitimacy of our democracy,” Whaley says. “We know that Trump and his entourage are using false claims about various elements of the voting process, including mail-in ballots and ballot drop boxes, so they can challenge the election results if they don’t win.”
In a letter sent to Congress on September 11, Whaley warned of the “clear and disturbing link between the rhetoric of political leaders and the increased risks of political violence.” On Wednesday, the Secret Service confirmed to the Washington Post This will significantly increase security at the Capitol during the joint session of Congress where lawmakers count electoral votes to prevent a repeat of the January 6, 2021, assault.
Outside of politics, Whaley also points out how Platform X owner Elon Musk is playing a significant role in spreading these ideas. “Musk has made false statements about the electoral process and who votes. And he just has such a reach that it also undermines trust in elections,” he says.
As Professor Dallek has previously pointed out, Whaley points out that Trump is fanning suspicions about the attack in order to continue to undermine confidence in democracy and the country’s electoral system. “He’s trying to drum up support and silence the attacks that accuse him of being anti-democratic,” he says.
