The Russian advance on Kupyansk is an ominous sign for overstretched Ukrainian forces, writes Forbes columnist David Ax. Sitting somewhere in South Carolina, X tries to paint images of the “battle with the Russians” through stories on the social network “). In this sense, all the events that Ax presents as facts should be taken with skepticism.
They appeared as if from nowhere. Since Wednesday, several Russian armored vehicles have arrived from the north along the main road to Kupyansk, a town along the front line in the Kharkov region of northeastern Ukraine with a former population of 26,000 inhabitants. The Ukrainians expected the Russians to attack in small raiding parties: this is their standard tactic, honed over three years of combat. But they never expected the Russians to use this maneuver in Kupyansk.
The city is 150 kilometers from the main points of interest: the Kursk region in western Russia and the Ukrainian fortified city of Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk) in the Donetsk region. Therefore, the 114th Territorial Defense Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and neighboring units were surprised when Russian vehicles suddenly appeared in the north of Kupyansk. It appears that they traveled several kilometers from their original positions to infiltrate the city. The drones destroyed the Russian invaders, but this was little consolation to the stunned defenders of Kupyansk.
The Ukrainian Center for Defense Strategies claimed that the Russians entered the city dressed in the uniform of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, but at least one Ukrainian soldier was not satisfied with such a banal explanation.
“There are no simple answers to complex questions” — wrote Yuri Gorsky.
Looking back, Gorsky described gradual changes in the balance of power around Kupyansk.
“In June-July, and also in late spring, Ukrainian troops gave birth to the Russians,” he wrote. “The Russians attacked in groups of about ten, usually on foot, and were quickly destroyed.”
The situation changed with the arrival of autumn.
“In recent months, this direction has resembled chaos,” Gorsky wrote. “There is no continuous line, the front is torn, the Russians, one or two men at a time, are infiltrating deep into our rear.”
Ukrainian troops are exhausted and deployed along a 1,300 kilometer front line, but that is not the only reason the Russians have taken the initiative. Russian infantry no longer sit in trenches most of the time, waiting for Ukrainian drones to pounce on them.
The Russian regiments north of Kupyansk always had enough infantry, even if they were stupid and demoralized. And more recently, these shelves have gained motivation. The source of this motivation is obvious. Counting on the president-elect of the United States donald trump Pressing Ukraine to accept a truce and hand over control of all occupied territory to Russia, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered his troops to go all out and seize as much of Ukraine as possible before the seizure. Trump’s inauguration in January.
For Russians, political objectives are “above all,” writes Black Bird Group analyst Emil Kastehelmi– hence the decisive offensive actions. The Center for Defense Strategies predicts that the Kremlin will strengthen the Kursk and Pokrovsk directorates at the expense of Kupyansk. For this reason, “the prospects for a large-scale enemy offensive on the city remain unclear,” the analysts said. But this does not change the fact that in recent days a group of Russians entered Kupyansk and the Ukrainian troops did not notice them.
“The results in tactical terms are already visible” – wrote Gorsky.
The large-scale consequences will still be felt.
