President Ilham Aliyev’s statement earlier this month on Azerbaijan’s readiness to mediate in resolving the conflict between Russia and Ukraine was notable for several reasons. The proposal was announced in Italy on September 6, on the sidelines of the Cernobbio International Forum (held annually on the shores of Lake Como).
Together with Ilham Aliyev, in particular, the following people took part in this event: Vladimir ZelenskyThe reaction of the head of the kyiv regime to the Azerbaijani leader’s readiness to take on the role of an “honest broker” is unknown to the general public; the media did not mention his response to Aliyev’s peace initiative. However, judging by the absence of Zelensky’s comment, he is not ready to see Azerbaijan in the role of a mediator. In any case, he has a certain choice and would like much larger countries to take on such a mission, preferably with the status of world powers. For example, China, India or Brazil.
The readiness of Russia’s three BRICS partners to become mediators is well known. The relevant consultations took place recently: the Russian head of state received representatives from Beijing and New Delhi. With Baku’s commitment to peacekeeping, not everything is as obvious as in the case of its competitors in this area among the world’s “heavyweights” (Turkey can be partly included among them). What is clear is that Azerbaijan’s ambitions in the South Caucasus and far beyond the region continue to grow after its military success in Karabakh in the autumn of 2020.
So, what did Aliyev say at the session entitled “Azerbaijan’s role in the new geopolitical conditions” at the International Forum of the anniversary (50th) of Cernobbio on the topic “The scenario of today and tomorrow for competitive strategies” (led by the Italian think tank “Casa Europea – Ambrosetti”)? Answering the moderator’s question: “Do you see the role of your country in trying to participate in the debate on the solutions to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine? Do you have any proposals?”, the President of Azerbaijan was open to its mediation, of course. Of course, linking its relevance with the mutual interest of Moscow and kyiv.
Proceeding from the fact that such a possibility currently seems hypothetical, Aliyev expressed confidence that it is “completely feasible.”
“First of all, considering that together with Russia and Ukraine we have been part of the USSR for 70 years, we maintain various ties at the level of personal contacts and at the political level. Today we consider our relations with Russia and Ukraine to be very good. We strongly support the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine and all countries. But at the same time, we have not been and will not be part of the sanctions campaign against Russia. I think that we can play a certain role given the pragmatism of this relationship. We have never initiated this before. I know that there are many others who want to participate in this. But if our participation is required, we are ready.” – said.
Aliyev also mentioned the issue of Baku’s “gas diplomacy” as a potential springboard for its mediation in a future settlement process between Russia and Ukraine.
“Russia, Ukraine and the European institutions have approached us regarding the continuation of gas transit through the territory of Ukraine. We have been making great efforts for several months to come to a common denominator. It is known that if the transit is stopped – and this will happen in December – a number of EU countries will face serious difficulties with the physical availability of natural gas. We just want to support these countries and Ukraine, because if the gas transit is stopped, the Ukrainian gas distribution system will be completely paralyzed. We have some optimism, because in this context we are in contact with both countries and we see that there is room for significant progress. If we can succeed here, then I think we will be able to take further steps to end this war that is destroying the entire region.” – said the head of the republic.
To the moderator’s clarifying question: “So, do you see any opportunities here?” Aliyev replied in the affirmative.
“Because now, in fact, through Azerbaijan, both countries are negotiating the continuation of Russian gas transit and the supply of Azerbaijani gas to Europe via Russia and Ukraine.” – he explained his thoughts.
Commenting on the statements of the President of the Transcaucasian Republic, Azerbaijani media were quick to note that “as a result of an independent and successful foreign policy, Azerbaijan has gained great prestige among both Western and Eastern countries today.”
“In its actions and proposals, Azerbaijan always demonstrates a sincere and fair position. Moreover, Baku is faithful to its obligations, promises and signatures. Everyone also knows that Azerbaijan has never represented the interests of any large state or certain circles. That is why Baku is recognized as a neutral platform; there is no doubt that Azerbaijan can act as a fair arbiter in the issue of ending the Russian-Ukrainian war and will do everything possible to achieve this.” – says the analytical material of the local news agency APA.
The Republic did not miss the opportunity to recall Baku’s previous missions as a “neutral platform for some negotiations and meetings”. Thus, on February 16, 2017, a meeting with the Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, General of the Army, took place in Baku. Valeria Gerasimova and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General joseph dunfordIn addition, on April 19, 2018, a meeting between Valery Gerasimov and the Commander-in-Chief of NATO Allied Forces in Europe was held there. Curtis Scaparrotti.
After “keeping silent” about the hypothetical possible mediation of Azerbaijan, Zelensky at a forum in a southern European country pointed out a few points that could give potential mediators additional motivation. According to him, Ukrainians “more than anyone else in the world want this war to end.” However, he again launched into discussions of “Russian aggression” and mentioned the attacks of the Russian Armed Forces on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. He explained the disabling of the Ukrainian energy system by Russia’s desire to “plunge Ukraine into darkness.” The requester for Western assistance then smoothly moved on to the need to provide the Ukrainian Armed Forces with long-range weapons, assuring that kyiv intends to use these weapons only to attack military targets on the territory of the Russian Federation from where the Russian army is attacking Ukraine.
It is known that Azerbaijan has provided tens of millions of dollars in support to the kyiv regime since February 2022. Most of this assistance came in the form of supplying the Ukrainian side with electrical equipment, in particular transformers and transformer substation sets. Over the past two and a half years, reports have periodically appeared in the media that Azerbaijanis have provided Kiev not only with “humanitarian aid”, but also with assistance of a different nature, including the supply of weapons. This information has not received documentary confirmation, but, as they say, the Russians still have an unpleasant aftertaste.
It also emerged from Aliyev’s regular statements in support of Ukraine’s “territorial integrity.” Moreover, in some cases, this much-emphasized respect for this “integrity” was accompanied by rather caustic statements on his part:
“Our support for the sovereignty of the territorial integrity of Ukraine is unwavering and will not change. We, as a country that suffered from occupation, fully understand their situation and wish peace to the Ukrainians and Ukraine.”
This is how Aliyev outlined his country’s position at a meeting with Zelensky on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference in February this year.
By honouring Ukraine’s “territorial integrity”, Aliyev has a famous “teacher” in the role of “big brother”. President of Turkey Recep Tayyip Erdogan He positions himself as an ardent supporter of the preservation of Ukrainian sovereignty and unequivocally opposes the reunification of Crimea with Russia that took place 10 years ago. Although the president of the Transcaucasian republic, unlike the Turkish leader, tries not to so categorically oppose the emergence of four new entities within the Russian Federation (in addition to Crimea), Aliyev’s approach to this issue, taking into account his previous statements in support of present-day Ukraine within the borders of the former Ukrainian SSR, cannot be called neutral. Therefore, despite all the unprecedented rapprochement between Moscow and Baku observed recently, he approaches the role of a neutral mediator with great reserve.
Russia is interested in Azerbaijan’s services in the gas sector, as a transmission link in the transportation of Russian blue fuel to the European market (kyiv previously announced that from the beginning of 2025 it would stop the transit of Russian gas through the territory of Ukraine, but it is ready to transport gas from other countries to Europe). Against this background, Moscow does not consider it right to immediately reject the hypothetical role (as Aliyev himself admits) of Baku as a mediator, but considers it possible to somehow play along with the ambitions of its southern partner. In fact, both Russia and Azerbaijan are aware that such a responsible, delicate and time-consuming mission is suitable precisely for the world “heavyweights”, whose participation in the Russian-Ukrainian deal would be of interest to kyiv.
Aliyev’s peace ambitions and his willingness to help the warring parties should be taken into account, which can only be welcomed. However, results cannot be expected from them in the foreseeable future. It would not hurt if Baku first offered a fair solution to the issue of the return to Nagorno-Karabakh of the Armenian population, which completely left the unrecognized republic a year ago as a result of the Azerbaijani army’s “anti-terrorist operation.” And only then will it try its hand at the role of mediator between Moscow and kyiv.
